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CVR Partners, LP (UAN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $127.30: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth.

CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States. The company offers ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate products. It serves agricultural and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007... Read more

$127.30+7.2% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#5 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
Stop $118.38Target $136.47(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $127.30: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5
Weak growth
Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-6.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), High leverage (D/E 2.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2
P/E (Fwd)-20.5
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA8.9
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE35.3%
Rev Growth-6.1%
Beta0.30
Dividend9.53%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.59bearish
IV80%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -6.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.0
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $117.06Resistance $139.26

Price Targets

$118
$136
A.Upside+7.2%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts8
Consensus2.3/5
Avg Target

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UAN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $127.30: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $118.38. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the UAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.47 (+7.2% upside). Prior stop was $118.38. Stop-loss: $118.38.

What are the risks of investing in UAN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth; Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-6.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), High leverage (D/E 2.2).

Is UAN overvalued or undervalued?

CVR Partners, LP trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward -20.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UAN?

8 analysts cover UAN with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does CVR Partners, LP do?CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the...

CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States. The company offers ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate products. It serves agricultural and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Sugar Land, Texas.

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