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SMGScotts Miracle-Gro Company (TheSell5.6·$59.62+3.63%
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Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The (SMG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Sell if holding. At $59.62, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%).

Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products in North America, operating through U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne (indoor/hydroponic), and Other (Canada) segments. Revenue flows through home centers, mass merchandisers, and warehouse clubs,... Read more

$59.62+6.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.30%
IncomeYield4.59%(5y avg 3.75%)Payout75.86%
Stop $55.45Target $63.36(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$72.83+22.2%6 analysts
$63.36our TP
$59.62price
$72.83mean
$80

Sell if holding. At $59.62, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%)
Thin upside margin: 6.3%
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.6
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn3.2%
ROE
Rev Growth5.0%
Beta1.83
Dividend4.59%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.24bullish
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerHome Depot and Lowe's52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our top two retail customers, The Home Depot and Lowe’s, together accounted for 52% of our fiscal 2025 net sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
2.5
Value Rank
5.3

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.7
Revenue Growth
3.8
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $53.60Resistance $62.07

Price Targets

$55
$63
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $59.62, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $55.45. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.36 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $55.45. Stop-loss: $55.45.

What are the risks of investing in SMG?

Concentration risk — Customer: Home Depot and Lowe's (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is SMG overvalued or undervalued?

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The trades at a P/E of 16.6 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMG?

11 analysts cover SMG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $73.

What does Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The do?Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products in North America, operating...

Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products in North America, operating through U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne (indoor/hydroponic), and Other (Canada) segments. Revenue flows through home centers, mass merchandisers, and warehouse clubs, with over 75% of annual North America consumer sales concentrated in Q2-Q3.

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