Value
8.8/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
- ▸Attractively valued
UAN · Why this verdict
Why CVR Partners (UAN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CVR Partners is a high-quality nitrogen fertilizer partnership (ROE 48%, Piotroski 8/9) trading at an attractive valuation, but leverage, a yield-trap warning and middling momentum leave little near-term upside to the $131.25 resistance level.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is attractively valued, with a value score of 8.8 out of 10 and strong P/E, price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA components. Valuation breakdown | The value score stays above 7 while earnings hold, with price re-rating toward peers. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples in commodity businesses often sit at peak earnings and can look cheap just before margins compress. | ||
Momentum is only 4.5 out of 10 with price $125.44 and just 7.3% to the $131.25 resistance level against 3.2% downside; no analyst target exists. Targets | Price breaks above $131.25 resistance, lifting the momentum score above 5.5. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day average suggest accumulation that could drive a breakout. | ||
Business quality is high at 8.2 out of 10, with ROE of 48%, 24% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFertilizer earnings are cyclical, and cash conversion is only 70% of net income, so peak-cycle returns may overstate durable quality. | ||
CVR Partners has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with 1 miss, and the next report is due in 10 days. Catalyst breakdown | EPS beats in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average surprise score is 0 out of 10, so beats have been small and the 1 miss shows estimates are not reliably cleared. | ||
A leverage penalty applies at a debt-to-equity of 1.7, and the distribution is flagged as a high-yield-but-unsafe yield trap. Bear case | Debt-to-equity falls below 1.2 and the distribution is maintained. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA flagged unsafe yield means a cut could remove the income support that holds the partnership's units up. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with a value score of 8.8 out of 10 and strong P/E, price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA components.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score stays above 7 while earnings hold, with price re-rating toward peers.
CounterCheap multiples in commodity businesses often sit at peak earnings and can look cheap just before margins compress.
Momentum is only 4.5 out of 10 with price $125.44 and just 7.3% to the $131.25 resistance level against 3.2% downside; no analyst target exists.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price breaks above $131.25 resistance, lifting the momentum score above 5.5.
CounterRising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day average suggest accumulation that could drive a breakout.
Business quality is high at 8.2 out of 10, with ROE of 48%, 24% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months.
CounterFertilizer earnings are cyclical, and cash conversion is only 70% of net income, so peak-cycle returns may overstate durable quality.
CVR Partners has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with 1 miss, and the next report is due in 10 days.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS beats in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe average surprise score is 0 out of 10, so beats have been small and the 1 miss shows estimates are not reliably cleared.
A leverage penalty applies at a debt-to-equity of 1.7, and the distribution is flagged as a high-yield-but-unsafe yield trap.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity falls below 1.2 and the distribution is maintained.
CounterA flagged unsafe yield means a cut could remove the income support that holds the partnership's units up.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.8 |
| Gross margin | 5.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 48%
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 4.9 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.1 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 1.4 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.7 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.9 < 4.5 minimum; Earnings in 4 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:2/3:self_excluded
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.8
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.9<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Growth at 8.8, and Quality at 8.2; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.9, Momentum at 3.9, and Insider at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality High Roe Business
Trip ifROE falls below 25% from the current 48% or Piotroski F-Score falls below 6.
- P2Attractive Valuation Deep Value
Trip ifValue score falls below 6.0 from the current 8.8 as the price re-rates.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Leverage And Yield Trap Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 2.5 from the current 1.7 or the distribution is cut by more than 30%.
- P5Limited Near Term Upside
Trip ifPrice falls more than 3.2% to the $118.34 stop level.