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IPIIntrepid Potash, IncSell5.6·$34.80-0.77%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Intrepid Potash shows a cyclical valuation trap with forward earnings priced for a sharp reversion, a severely negative asymmetry setup, and an earnings-quality flag, consistent with a quality score below the engine's floor.

Thesis pillars

  • Severe Negative AsymmetryStable
  • Cyclical Valuation TrapStable
  • Earnings Quality Red FlagStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Intrepid Potash, Inc (IPI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.80: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Intrepid Potash, Inc. delivers potassium, magnesium, sulfur, salt, and water products. It operates through three segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield Solutions. The company offers muriate of potash for various markets, such as in agricultural market as a fertilizer input, in... Read more

$34.80+3.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#6 of 9 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.32%
Stop $32.36Target $35.95(resistance)A.R:R -4.4:1
Analyst target$26.00-25.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.80: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-36.5% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.8
P/E (Fwd)56.0
Mkt Cap$459M
EV/EBITDA5.6
Profit Mgn5.8%
ROE3.0%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta1.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV67%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.8
Roe
1.0
Gross Margin
1.2
Roa
1.4
Net Margin
2.9
Operating Margin
3.6
Moat
5.8
Current Ratio
7.7
Piotroski F
8.9
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 10% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Price Target
1.8
Analyst Rating
4.4
Erm Sentiment
5.0
Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampenedBelow analyst target
GatesA.R:R -4.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.36Resistance $36.68

Price Targets

$32
$36
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R-4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-36.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IPI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.80: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $32.36. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IPI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.95 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $32.36. Stop-loss: $32.36.

What are the risks of investing in IPI?

Target reached (-36.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is IPI overvalued or undervalued?

Intrepid Potash, Inc trades at a P/E of 30.8 (forward 56.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IPI?

9 analysts cover IPI with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Intrepid Potash, Inc do?Intrepid Potash, Inc. delivers potassium, magnesium, sulfur, salt, and water products. It operates through three...

Intrepid Potash, Inc. delivers potassium, magnesium, sulfur, salt, and water products. It operates through three segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield Solutions. The company offers muriate of potash for various markets, such as in agricultural market as a fertilizer input, in animal feed market as a nutrient supplement, in industrial market as a component in drilling and fracturing fluids, as well as input to other industrial processes. It also provides Trio, a specialty fertilizer that delivers potassium, sulfate, and magnesium in a single particle; salt for various markets, including animal feed, industrial applications, pool salt, and the treatment of roads and walkways for ice melting or to manage road conditions; magnesium chloride for use as a road treatment agent for deicing and dedusting; brines for use in oil and gas industry to support well workover and completion activities; and metal recovery salts. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

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