Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 8.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.80
- ▸Attractively valued
SMG · Why this verdict
Why Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The (SMG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 372% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.9 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
- ▸Above max pain $48
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 458.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.13
Upside
+9.7%
Downside
8.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.83>1.3, MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.13 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Sentiment at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.5, Growth at 3.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.