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NTRNutrien Ltd.Hold5.9·$67.62+3.14%
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Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail segment markets crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise, as well as provides agronomic application and... Read more

$67.62+9.2% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.95%
IncomeYield3.25%(5y avg 3.28%)Payout44.50%sustainable
Stop $64.26Target $73.86(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$82.07+21.4%20 analysts
$73.86our TP
$67.62price
$82.07mean
$96

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.2%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Under M&A bid - upside capped at deal spread, deal failure risk

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.8
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$32.5B
EV/EBITDA8.2
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth19.0%
Beta1.06
Dividend3.25%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.16bearish
IV46%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $64.83Resistance $72.23

Price Targets

$64
$74
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! M&A event: 'tender offer' detected

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Target $73.86 (+9.2%), stop $64.26 (−5.2%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NTR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $73.86 (+9.2% upside). Target $73.86 (+9.2%), stop $64.26 (−5.2%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $64.26.

What are the risks of investing in NTR?

Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Under M&A bid - upside capped at deal spread, deal failure risk.

Is NTR overvalued or undervalued?

Nutrien Ltd. trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NTR?

26 analysts cover NTR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $82.

What does Nutrien Ltd. do?Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen,...

Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail segment markets crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise, as well as provides agronomic application and financing services and solutions; and produces proprietary products, including proprietary crop nutrient, crop protection, and seed products. The Potash segment includes mining and processing of potash. The Nitrogen segment owns and operates ammonia production facilities that offers ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate (UAN), urea solutions, nitric acid, and ammonium nitrate, as well as environmentally smart nitrogen and ammonium sulfate. The Phosphate segment manufactures and sells solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers, phosphate feed, and purified phosphoric acid, which is used in feed and industrial products. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

Related stocks: CF (CF Industries Holdings, Inc.) · ICL (ICL Group Ltd.) · SMG (Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) · CTVA (Corteva, Inc.) · MOS (Mosaic Company (The))
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