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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $123.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

CF Industries is a nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer operating the world's largest ammonia production network, with facilities in the US (6 plants), Canada (2), and the UK (1). Revenue of $7.08B in 2025 came from selling ammonia, granular urea, UAN, AN, and industrial nitrogen... Read more

$123.18+11.2% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
Stop $114.29Target $136.65(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$120.42-2.2%19 analysts
$136.65our TP
$123.18price
$120.42mean
$86
$150

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $123.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.8
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$19.1B
EV/EBITDA7.3
Profit Mgn20.5%
ROE23.4%
Rev Growth22.8%
Beta0.52
Dividend1.61%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliernatural gas pipeline (single-source)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Certain of our plants are reliant on only one natural gas pipeline'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
1.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $109.71Resistance $139.44

Price Targets

$114
$137
A.Upside+10.9%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CF stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $123.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $136.65 (+10.9%), stop $114.29 (−7.8%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.65 (+11.2% upside). Target $136.65 (+10.9%), stop $114.29 (−7.8%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $114.29.

What are the risks of investing in CF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is CF overvalued or undervalued?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CF?

30 analysts cover CF with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $120.

What does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. do?CF Industries is a nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer operating the world's largest ammonia production network, with...

CF Industries is a nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer operating the world's largest ammonia production network, with facilities in the US (6 plants), Canada (2), and the UK (1). Revenue of $7.08B in 2025 came from selling ammonia, granular urea, UAN, AN, and industrial nitrogen products to cooperatives, retailers, distributors, and industrial users.

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