CF Industries is a high-quality, wide-moat nitrogen producer with 30% ROE and a 3-of-4 beat record, but price is 4.3% above the analyst target and it depends on a single natural gas pipeline.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat High Returns→Stable
- Earnings Beat Growth→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Wait for pullback to $112.56. Price sits above the model's entry target of $112.56; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single natural gas pipeline; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
CF Industries Holdings manufactures nitrogen fertilizer products — principally ammonia, granular urea, UAN, and AN — from six U.S., two Canadian, and one U.K. facility, generating $7.08 billion in net sales from 19.1 million tons in 2025. Customers include agricultural... Read more
Wait for pullback to $112.56. Price sits above the model's entry target of $112.56; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single natural gas pipeline; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-3.7% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF Industries Holdings generated $7.08 billion in net sales in 2025 from 19.1 million product tons across five segments: Ammonia ($2.18 billion, 4.6 million tons), Granular Urea ($1.78 billion, 4.1 million tons), UAN ($2.16 billion, 6.9 million tons), AN ($421 million), and Other ($545 million). The company operates eight North American manufacturing facilities, including Donaldsonville, Louisiana — described in the 10-K as the largest ammonia production complex in the world — and holds a 50% interest in PLNL, an ammonia joint venture in Trinidad.
CF Industries earns revenue primarily from agricultural customers — cooperatives, retailers, and independent fertilizer distributors — who purchase ammonia and upgraded nitrogen products at spot or forward market prices. Natural gas is both feedstock and fuel for the Haber-Bosch ammonia production process; North American natural gas has historically traded well below the global marginal cost of production, giving CF Industries a cost advantage over competitors in the Middle East, Europe, and Russia — though that advantage may erode if U.S. LNG export volumes increase or competitors gain access to lower-cost feedstock. The Donaldsonville complex completed a carbon capture and sequestration project in July 2025 at a cost of approximately $200 million, enabling up to approximately 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia annually and qualifying for 45Q Tax Credits. The Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, formed April 2025, targets construction of a low-carbon ammonia facility in Modeste, Louisiana at an estimated cost of approximately $3.7 billion, with first production planned for 2029.
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Natural gas supply disruptions expose CF Industries to production risk at individual plants. Certain facilities depend on a single natural gas pipeline, meaning a localized outage could halt production without an alternative feed path. The Donaldsonville and Waggaman complexes sit in Louisiana's Gulf Coast, a region the 10-K notes 'experiences a relatively high level of hurricane or high wind activity'; the filing further notes that insurance may be insufficient or unavailable for certain severe weather events at these complexes, introducing unhedged tail risk at the company's largest production hub.
See also: Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
From CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Here's How Much $1000 Invested In CF Industries Holdings 20 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today - Benzinga — Benzinga neutral
- NEWS CF|CF Industries Holdings Inc|Price:125.770|Chg%:-1.580 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS CF|CF Industries Holdings Inc|Price:125.770|Chg%:-1.580 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS CF stock rallies 59% in 3 months: What should investors do now? - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Issues Positive Forecast for CF Industries (NYSE:CF) Stock Price - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersingle natural gas pipeline10-K Item 1A: 'certain of our plants are reliant on only one natural gas pipeline'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-05Item 5.02MEDIUMAndrew T. Scribner elected EVP and CFO of CF Industries Holdings, effective May 26, 2026. Previously VP at Kimberly-Clark (June 2025–May 2026) and CFO of Kimberly-Clark North America (Jan 2023–June 2025). Successor named; no reason cited for prior CFO departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
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Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $112.56. Price sits above the model's entry target of $112.56; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: single natural gas pipeline; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-3.7% upside). Wait for pullback. Analyst target $115.50 reached (−3.7%), stop $107.29 (−11.8%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $115.50 reached (−3.7% from $119.92); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $115.50 reached (−3.7%), stop $107.29 (−11.8%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $107.29.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single natural gas pipeline; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.9 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
31 analysts cover CF with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $128.
What does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. do?CF Industries Holdings manufactures nitrogen fertilizer products — principally ammonia, granular urea, UAN, and AN —...
CF Industries Holdings manufactures nitrogen fertilizer products — principally ammonia, granular urea, UAN, and AN — from six U.S., two Canadian, and one U.K. facility, generating $7.08 billion in net sales from 19.1 million tons in 2025. Customers include agricultural cooperatives, retailers, and industrial users who purchase at market-based prices tied to global nitrogen supply and demand.