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PEGAPegasystems Inc.Sell4.8·$32.76-0.15%
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Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.

Pegasystems develops enterprise AI decisioning and workflow automation software (Pega Platform) for financial services, healthcare, government, insurance, and other large enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily subscription-based with $2.1B in backlog as of December 31, 2025;... Read more

$32.76+54.5% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#94 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield9.74%
IncomeYield0.37%(5y avg 0.21%)Payout8.11%sustainable
Stop $30.52Target $50.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$58.18+77.6%11 analysts
$50.62our TP
$32.76price
$58.18mean
$71

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13

Recent Developments — Pegasystems Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 55%
Risks
Weak overall score: 4.8/10
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.7
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA24.5
Profit Mgn20.0%
ROE51.7%
Rev Growth-9.6%
Beta0.84
Dividend0.37%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$85+159.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved the 2026 Section 16 Officer/ALT Member Corporate Incentive Compensation Plan on February 9, 2026, covering executive officers. Financial goals weighted 75%, strategic goals 25%. Routine annual compensation plan adoption.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -9.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.1
Declining revenue: -10%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume
4.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
6.4
Quality Rank
8.4
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.46Resistance $38.14

Price Targets

$31
$51
A.Upside+54.5%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PEGA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.52. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PEGA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.62 (+54.5% upside). Prior stop was $30.52. Stop-loss: $30.52.

What are the risks of investing in PEGA?

Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is PEGA overvalued or undervalued?

Pegasystems Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PEGA?

19 analysts cover PEGA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Pegasystems Inc. do?Pegasystems develops enterprise AI decisioning and workflow automation software (Pega Platform) for financial services,...

Pegasystems develops enterprise AI decisioning and workflow automation software (Pega Platform) for financial services, healthcare, government, insurance, and other large enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily subscription-based with $2.1B in backlog as of December 31, 2025; the company also faces ongoing trade-secret litigation with Appian Corp. where a $2B+ judgment was reversed and remanded for retrial.

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