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HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

VTEX combines a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak with an asymmetry-gate-passing valuation and strong cash conversion, but moderate insider selling, rising leverage, and thin analyst coverage temper conviction in the 26% modeled upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Asymmetry Clears Engine Gate→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation Low Peg↑Improving
  • Excellent Cash Conversion And Piotroski Score→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

VTEX (VTEX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 7 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $3.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

VTEX, together with its subsidiaries, provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands and retailers. It provides VTEX platform that enables customers to execute commerce strategy, including building online stores, and integrating and managing... Read more

$3.86+24.9% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#3 of 116 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield6.24%
Stop $3.59Analyst target $4.82(−13% haircut)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst consensus$5.54+43.5%10 analysts
$4.82Analyst target
$3.86price
$5.54mean
$12

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $3.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.7
P/E (Fwd)14.0
Mkt Cap$658M
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn12.0%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta0.93
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.57Resistance $4.44

Price Targets

$4
$5
A.Upside+24.9%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VTEX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $3.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $4.82 (+24.9%), stop $3.59 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VTEX stock price target?

Analyst target: $4.82 (+24.9% upside). Analyst target $4.82 (+24.9%), stop $3.59 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $3.59.

What are the risks of investing in VTEX?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is VTEX overvalued or undervalued?

VTEX trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VTEX?

15 analysts cover VTEX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $6.

What does VTEX do?VTEX, together with its subsidiaries, provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands...

VTEX, together with its subsidiaries, provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands and retailers. It provides VTEX platform that enables customers to execute commerce strategy, including building online stores, and integrating and managing orders across channels, as well as creating marketplaces to sell products from third-party vendors. The company also offers customer support services; and optional services, such as project management, solutions architecting, and implementation consulting services. It serves its products to home appliances, apparel and accessories, beauty and health, electronics, grocery, department stores, and toys and hobbies, as well as home, furniture, and decoration markets. The company has operations in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, France, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Portugal, Romania, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. VTEX was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.

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