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FICOFair Isaac CorporationBuy Wait6.5·$1182.03+0.24%
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Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait for pullback to $1053.63. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $1182.03. Engine's entry $1053.63 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (87.0%).

Fair Isaac Corporation develops the FICO® Score (the US standard credit risk measure) and decision management software through two segments: Scores (B2B via consumer reporting agencies, B2C via myFICO.com) and Software (analytics and decisioning tools). 92% of revenue comes from... Read more

$1182.03+22.0% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#6 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.67%
Entry $1053.63(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $930.75Target $1374.75(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1Setup A.R:R 3.8:1
Analyst target$1527.50+29.2%20 analysts
$1374.75our TP
$1182.03price
$1527.50mean
$707
$2400

Wait for pullback to $1053.63. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $1182.03. Engine's entry $1053.63 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (87.0%). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.79, quality 9.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (87.0%)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.5
P/E (Fwd)21.7
Mkt Cap$27.3B
EV/EBITDA26.5
Profit Mgn33.7%
ROE
Rev Growth38.7%
Beta1.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV84%elevated
Max Pain$1560+32.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerbanking industry92%
    10-K Item 1A: 'During fiscal 2025, 92% of our revenues were derived from sales of products and services to the banking industry'
  • HIGHGeographicAmericas87%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest geographic market is the Americas, representing 87% of our total revenue during fiscal 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerExperian, TransUnion and Equifax51%
    10-K Item 1: 'revenues generated from our agreements with Experian, TransUnion and Equifax collectively accounted for 51%, 45% and 41% of our total revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1094.21Resistance $1323.35

Price Targets

$931
$1054
$1375
A.Upside+16.3%
A.R:R1.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FICO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $1053.63. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $1182.03. Engine's entry $1053.63 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (87.0%). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.79, quality 9.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $1374.75 (+16.3%), stop $930.75 (−27.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.8:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FICO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1374.75 (+22.0% upside). Target $1374.75 (+16.3%), stop $930.75 (−27.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.8:1. Stop-loss: $930.75.

What are the risks of investing in FICO?

Concentration risk — Customer: banking industry (92.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (87.0%); Negative momentum.

Is FICO overvalued or undervalued?

Fair Isaac Corporation trades at a P/E of 37.5 (forward 21.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FICO?

29 analysts cover FICO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $1528.

What does Fair Isaac Corporation do?Fair Isaac Corporation develops the FICO® Score (the US standard credit risk measure) and decision management software...

Fair Isaac Corporation develops the FICO® Score (the US standard credit risk measure) and decision management software through two segments: Scores (B2B via consumer reporting agencies, B2C via myFICO.com) and Software (analytics and decisioning tools). 92% of revenue comes from the banking industry; 87% from the Americas. Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax combined account for 51% of total revenues as score distributors.

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