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Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait for pullback to $973.75. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $1021.16. Engine's entry $973.75 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: financial services industry (92.0%).

Fair Isaac Corporation provides the FICO Score -- the standard measure of U.S. consumer credit risk distributed through Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax -- and analytics software for fraud detection, origination, and customer management in over 80 countries. Financial services... Read more

$1021.16+48.6% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#2 of 96 Software - Application
Entry $973.75(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $840.64Target $1438.58(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.8:1Setup A.R:R 6.9:1
Analyst target$1598.42+56.5%20 analysts
$1438.58our TP
$1021.16price
$1598.42mean
$2400

Wait for pullback to $973.75. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $1021.16. Engine's entry $973.75 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: financial services industry (92.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.95, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: financial services industry (92.0%)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.5
P/E (Fwd)19.0
Mkt Cap$23.8B
EV/EBITDA23.4
Profit Mgn33.7%
ROE
Rev Growth38.7%
Beta1.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$830-18.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerExperian, TransUnion and Equifax51%
    10-K Item 1: 'revenues generated from our agreements with Experian, TransUnion and Equifax collectively accounted for 51%... of our total revenues'
  • HIGHCustomerfinancial services industry92%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest market segment is financial services, representing 92% of our total revenue during fiscal 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicAmericas87%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest geographic market is the Americas, representing 87% of our total revenue during fiscal 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
4.3
Gap
5.0
Bollinger
5.6
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $870.01Resistance $1130.51

Price Targets

$841
$974
$1439
A.Upside+40.9%
A.R:R2.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)6.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FICO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $973.75. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $1021.16. Engine's entry $973.75 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: financial services industry (92.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.95, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $1438.58 (+40.9%), stop $840.64 (−21.5%), Setup A.R:R 6.9:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FICO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1438.58 (+48.6% upside). Target $1438.58 (+40.9%), stop $840.64 (−21.5%), Setup A.R:R 6.9:1. Stop-loss: $840.64.

What are the risks of investing in FICO?

Concentration risk — Customer: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax (51.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: financial services industry (92.0%); Negative momentum.

Is FICO overvalued or undervalued?

Fair Isaac Corporation trades at a P/E of 32.5 (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FICO?

28 analysts cover FICO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $1598.

What does Fair Isaac Corporation do?Fair Isaac Corporation provides the FICO Score -- the standard measure of U.S. consumer credit risk distributed through...

Fair Isaac Corporation provides the FICO Score -- the standard measure of U.S. consumer credit risk distributed through Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax -- and analytics software for fraud detection, origination, and customer management in over 80 countries. Financial services represents 92% of fiscal 2025 revenue; revenues from the three major consumer reporting agencies collectively totaled 51% of revenues.

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