Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 3.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 3.99
PEGA · Why this verdict
Why Pegasystems (PEGA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 52%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 156% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 22 (fail)
Growth
0.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 66%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,550,347 (0.061% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 0.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.0 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸High IV: 90%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 35.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.6>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.27
Upside
+44.2%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.27 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.8, Quality at 7.0, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 0.1, Peer rank at 3.7, and Technical at 3.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.