Adeia combines a return on equity of 29%, free cash flow conversion of 141% of net income, and best-in-class peer margins with a PEG of 0.21, giving a high-quality franchise priced at a meaningful discount to its growth; customer concentration at 55.7% of revenue in the top five clients and short interest at 12% of float are the principal risks to monitor.
Thesis pillars
- Growth Priced At Discount↓Deteriorating
- Customer Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Best In Class Margins Fcf→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Adeia Inc. (ADEA) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Application
Wait for pullback to $20.84. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.75. Engine's entry $20.84 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (55.7%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Adeia licenses a portfolio of approximately 13,750 media and semiconductor patent assets to entertainment, consumer electronics, social media, and semiconductor companies worldwide. License fees — structured as fixed fees, per-subscriber or per-unit payments — generated revenue... Read more
Wait for pullback to $20.84. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.75. Engine's entry $20.84 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (55.7%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Earnings in 4 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 9/10). Fails on earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Adeia Inc.
About Adeia Inc.
Five customers represented 55.7% of Adeia's aggregate revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, with the company's licensing platform built around approximately 13,750 patent and patent application assets spanning media and semiconductor domains. Adeia employs approximately 150 full-time employees, substantially all U.S.-based. In November 2025, the company initiated litigation against AMD, asserting that AMD requires a license to its semiconductor portfolio including advanced process node and hybrid bonding technologies.
Adeia earns revenue by licensing its media and semiconductor IP across five customer segments: MVPDs including Charter, Comcast, and Cox paying monthly per-subscriber fees; OTT video services including Amazon and Disney+ under fixed-fee multi-year agreements; consumer electronics manufacturers including LG, Samsung, Roku, and Canon under per-unit or fixed fees; social media companies; and semiconductor producers including Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Kioxia. The company's internal innovation engine accounts for approximately 80% of its combined patent portfolio. Revenue model risks include "most favored nation" clauses in some agreements that could require retroactive term adjustments, and semiconductor agreements that automatically convert to fully paid-up licenses upon expiration — meaning future fees from those customers may not materialize even while licensed patents remain in effect. In December 2025, the company resolved outstanding Disney litigation and signed a long-term media portfolio license, illustrating the enforcement model's ability to convert unlicensed parties to paying customers.
Show full overview
Revenue concentration is acute: five counterparties account for 55.7% of annual revenue, and agreements with some carry no minimum license fees, meaning subscriber or unit declines flow directly to the top line. The company's U.S.-issued patents expire at varying points through the next two decades — the last currently issued patent expiring in March 2045 — requiring continuous portfolio replenishment via internal development or acquisition to sustain the licensing platform. In May 2026, Adeia disclosed via Form 8-K that CEO Paul E. Davis intends to step down once a successor is identified, with a target completion date in the fourth quarter of 2026.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Adeia Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Adeia Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS A Look at Adeia Inc (ADEA) After 3.6% Gain -- GF Value $15.25 vs Price $25.60 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Learn Why The Bull Case For Adeia Stock Could Change Following New CEO Appointment - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street positive
- NEWS Adeia Jumps 5.2% Amid Sector-Wide Rally - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet positive
- NEWS Adeia Jumps 5.2% Amid Sector-Wide Rally - news.alphastreet.com — news.alphastreet.com positive
- NEWS Adeia (NASDAQ:ADEA) Reaches New 1-Year High - Still a Buy? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-5 customers56%10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, five customers represented 55.7% of aggregate revenue.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-04Item 5.02HIGHCEO Paul E. Davis notified the Board on May 4, 2026 of his intention to step down to focus on health and personal pursuits. He will remain as CEO and Board member until a successor is named, with a target search completion of Q4 2026. No disagreement with the company cited. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $20.84. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.75. Engine's entry $20.84 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (55.7%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Earnings in 4 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Target $36.55 (+60.7%), stop $19.72 (−15.4%), A.R:R 5.7:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $36.55 (+60.7% upside). Target $36.55 (+60.7%), stop $19.72 (−15.4%), A.R:R 5.7:1. Stop-loss: $19.72.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (55.7%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).
Adeia Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.9 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
10 analysts cover ADEA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $43.
What does Adeia Inc. do?Adeia licenses a portfolio of approximately 13,750 media and semiconductor patent assets to entertainment, consumer...
Adeia licenses a portfolio of approximately 13,750 media and semiconductor patent assets to entertainment, consumer electronics, social media, and semiconductor companies worldwide. License fees — structured as fixed fees, per-subscriber or per-unit payments — generated revenue from MVPDs, OTT services, CE makers, and semiconductor firms; five customers represented 55.7% of 2025 aggregate revenue.