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GRNDGrindr Inc.Buy Wait7.0·$12.46+7.00%
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Grindr Inc. (GRND) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5AI GATE: FLAGGED — 1 riskModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait for pullback to $11.69. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $12.46. Engine's entry $11.69 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Leverage penalty (D/E 470.8): -1.5.

Grindr operates a global LGBTQ-focused social networking platform with 15.0M average MAUs and 1.3M average paying users in 2025, present in 190+ countries. Revenue comes from direct streams (premium subscriptions/add-ons) and indirect streams (advertising); the app is free with... Read more

$12.46+33.9% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#2 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.79%
Entry $11.69(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $10.46Target $15.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1Setup A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$18.20+46.1%5 analysts
$15.83our TP
$12.46price
$18.20mean
$22

Wait for pullback to $11.69. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $12.46. Engine's entry $11.69 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Leverage penalty (D/E 470.8): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.23, quality 8.9/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store
Leverage penalty (D/E 470.8): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.3
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA16.0
Profit Mgn19.9%
ROE58.9%
Rev Growth38.3%
Beta0.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.36bearish
IV125%elevated
Max Pain$20+60.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierApple App Store and Google Play Store
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely primarily on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store for distribution of and access to our products and services, and as the channels for processing substantially all direct consumer payments'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
4.1
Bollinger
4.2
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.30Resistance $13.90

Price Targets

$10
$12
$16
A.Upside+27.0%
A.R:R1.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! News gate: flagged (1 risks, 0 concerns)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRND stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $11.69. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $12.46. Engine's entry $11.69 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Leverage penalty (D/E 470.8): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.23, quality 8.9/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $15.83 (+27.0%), stop $10.46 (−19.1%), Setup A.R:R 4.8:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRND stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.83 (+33.9% upside). Target $15.83 (+27.0%), stop $10.46 (−19.1%), Setup A.R:R 4.8:1. Stop-loss: $10.46.

What are the risks of investing in GRND?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Leverage penalty (D/E 470.8): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is GRND overvalued or undervalued?

Grindr Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.3 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GRND?

11 analysts cover GRND with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Grindr Inc. do?Grindr operates a global LGBTQ-focused social networking platform with 15.0M average MAUs and 1.3M average paying users...

Grindr operates a global LGBTQ-focused social networking platform with 15.0M average MAUs and 1.3M average paying users in 2025, present in 190+ countries. Revenue comes from direct streams (premium subscriptions/add-ons) and indirect streams (advertising); the app is free with paid upgrades for enhanced features.

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