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EVCMEverCommerce Inc.Sell4.6·$9.39
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with a death cross and all moving averages declining, while four consecutive quarterly earnings misses averaging -30.5% suggest the business is meaningfully underperforming expectations — a low forward multiple and strong cash generation create a latent value argument, but the weight of technical and fundamental evidence does not yet support new entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Discount Offset By Entry Risk→Stable
  • Confirmed Technical Downtrend→Stable
  • Persistent Earnings Underperformance→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 12, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

EverCommerce Inc. (EVCM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityHigh Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 7 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.39 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

EverCommerce provides integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions to roughly 745,000 service SMBs across home services (EverPro), health services (EverHealth), and wellness (EverWell). Revenue from continuing operations reached $588.9 million in 2025, earned through recurring... Read more

$9.39+1.9% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#112 of 116 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield6.19%
Stop $8.73Analyst target $9.57(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst consensus$11.00+17.1%6 analysts
$9.57Analyst target
$9.39price
$11.00mean
$8
$13

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.39 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/9 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)62.6
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA16.7
Profit Mgn5.7%
ROE3.9%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta0.75
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV168%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWProductpayment-related transactions20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Payment-related transactions comprised approximately 20% of our revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyWorldpay and PayPal
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have entered into agreements with certain payment processors, including Worldpay and PayPal, in order to enable our clients' processing of credit, debit and prepaid card transactions'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 7 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.2
Quality Rank
3.9
Value Rank
4.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.9
Macd
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dINSIDER 0.28%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.75Resistance $10.07

Price Targets

$9
$10
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.9% upside)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EVCM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.39 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $8.73. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the EVCM stock price target?

Analyst target: $9.57 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $8.73. Stop-loss: $8.73.

What are the risks of investing in EVCM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is EVCM overvalued or undervalued?

EverCommerce Inc. trades at a P/E of 62.6 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EVCM?

14 analysts cover EVCM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $11.

What does EverCommerce Inc. do?EverCommerce provides integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions to roughly 745,000 service SMBs across home...

EverCommerce provides integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions to roughly 745,000 service SMBs across home services (EverPro), health services (EverHealth), and wellness (EverWell). Revenue from continuing operations reached $588.9 million in 2025, earned through recurring subscription fees and payment processing, growing at a 7.1% CAGR from 2022 to 2025.

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