Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.41
EVCM · Why this verdict
Why EverCommerce (EVCM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with a death cross and all moving averages declining, while four consecutive quarterly earnings misses averaging -30.5% suggest the business is meaningfully underperforming expectations — a low forward multiple and strong cash generation create a latent value argument, but the weight of technical and fundamental evidence does not yet support new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings of 11.9 times and a PEG ratio of 0.45 position the stock at a meaningful discount relative to its growth prospects, with analysts seeing roughly 23% of upside to consensus targets — a potential floor if fundamentals stabilize. Valuation breakdown | If the discount is genuine, a return to earnings delivery would push the forward multiple toward 18-20x, providing meaningful upside from current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap multiple in a death-cross pattern often stays cheap or gets cheaper; without a catalyst to break the earnings miss streak, there is no mechanism to close the discount, and the technical setup suggests the market has not yet identified a bottom. | ||
The stock has entered a death cross formation with price trading below all major moving averages, RSI at 32, and bearish MACD — the moving average slope is declining at -1.0% per 30 days, consistent with sustained and confirmed selling pressure rather than a brief pause. Momentum breakdown | This downtrend would need to reverse via a golden cross and price recovering above the 200-day moving average with momentum rising above 4.5 to signal a credible technical floor. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 32 is approaching oversold territory where sharp technical bounces often occur even within longer downtrends; a small-cap at these extremes can attract contrarian buyers before the fundamental picture clarifies. | ||
The company has missed consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 30.5% — a streak indicating the business is consistently and materially underdelivering relative to analyst expectations. Earnings | Two consecutive quarters with positive EPS surprises would be the minimum required to argue this pattern is breaking. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistent misses in small-cap software can reflect heavy investment ahead of a revenue inflection rather than a permanently impaired business; if the underlying platform metrics stabilize, the earnings gap could close more quickly than the streak suggests. | ||
Despite headline earnings misses, free cash flow stands at 298% of net income — meaning the company is generating nearly three times its reported earnings in actual cash, a divergence that suggests non-cash charges may be significantly depressing reported profits relative to the underlying cash economics. Quality breakdown | FCF relative to net income staying above 150% for the next four quarters would confirm this is a durable quality, not a one-period artifact. | →Stable |
| CounterA FCF/NI ratio of 298% can indicate that net income is artificially depressed by large non-cash amortization charges from prior acquisitions; once those charges roll off, the FCF advantage narrows without any improvement in the underlying business operations. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 11.9 times and a PEG ratio of 0.45 position the stock at a meaningful discount relative to its growth prospects, with analysts seeing roughly 23% of upside to consensus targets — a potential floor if fundamentals stabilize.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If the discount is genuine, a return to earnings delivery would push the forward multiple toward 18-20x, providing meaningful upside from current levels.
CounterA cheap multiple in a death-cross pattern often stays cheap or gets cheaper; without a catalyst to break the earnings miss streak, there is no mechanism to close the discount, and the technical setup suggests the market has not yet identified a bottom.
The stock has entered a death cross formation with price trading below all major moving averages, RSI at 32, and bearish MACD — the moving average slope is declining at -1.0% per 30 days, consistent with sustained and confirmed selling pressure rather than a brief pause.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- This downtrend would need to reverse via a golden cross and price recovering above the 200-day moving average with momentum rising above 4.5 to signal a credible technical floor.
CounterAn RSI of 32 is approaching oversold territory where sharp technical bounces often occur even within longer downtrends; a small-cap at these extremes can attract contrarian buyers before the fundamental picture clarifies.
The company has missed consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 30.5% — a streak indicating the business is consistently and materially underdelivering relative to analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Two consecutive quarters with positive EPS surprises would be the minimum required to argue this pattern is breaking.
CounterPersistent misses in small-cap software can reflect heavy investment ahead of a revenue inflection rather than a permanently impaired business; if the underlying platform metrics stabilize, the earnings gap could close more quickly than the streak suggests.
Despite headline earnings misses, free cash flow stands at 298% of net income — meaning the company is generating nearly three times its reported earnings in actual cash, a divergence that suggests non-cash charges may be significantly depressing reported profits relative to the underlying cash economics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF relative to net income staying above 150% for the next four quarters would confirm this is a durable quality, not a one-period artifact.
CounterA FCF/NI ratio of 298% can indicate that net income is artificially depressed by large non-cash amortization charges from prior acquisitions; once those charges roll off, the FCF advantage narrows without any improvement in the underlying business operations.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 302% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 20 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.3 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 4.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $4,705,779 (0.284% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 3.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.4 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
- ▸High IV: 168%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.28%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
0.19
Upside
+1.9%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.4, Sentiment at 5.8, and Quality at 5.7; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.1, and Insider at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice rises more than 15% above $9.14 and momentum score exceeds 4.5 for 2 consecutive months.
- P2Persistent Earnings Underperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Strong Cash Conversion Despite Misses
Trip ifFree cash flow relative to net income falls below 150% for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P4Valuation Discount Offset By Entry Risk
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x for 2 consecutive quarters.