Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 2.29
CF · Why this verdict
Why CF Industries Holdings (CF) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CF Industries is a high-quality, wide-moat nitrogen producer with 30% ROE and a 3-of-4 beat record, but price is 4.3% above the analyst target and it depends on a single natural gas pipeline.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
CF has a wide economic moat, 30% ROE, 27% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 20% and margins above 20% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality warning shows 61% FCF/NI, and fertilizer margins swing with commodity prices. | ||
CF beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an 11.7% average surprise, and quarterly revenue rose from $1.89B to $2.22B. Avg surprise pct | EPS surprise stays positive and revenue stays above $2.0B per quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue gains follow nitrogen price spikes that can reverse, and one miss shows estimates are not always cleared. | ||
At $120.68 the stock is 4.3% above the $115.50 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scoring 10/10 with a 10.6x forward P/E suggests targets may lag results. | ||
Natural gas supply, the key input, depends on a single pipeline, creating a single point of failure. Bear case | Input supply and gas costs stay stable over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPipeline supply is usually contracted with redundancy, and a disruption could also lift product prices. | ||
CF has a wide economic moat, 30% ROE, 27% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 20% and margins above 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality warning shows 61% FCF/NI, and fertilizer margins swing with commodity prices.
CF beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an 11.7% average surprise, and quarterly revenue rose from $1.89B to $2.22B.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive and revenue stays above $2.0B per quarter.
CounterRevenue gains follow nitrogen price spikes that can reverse, and one miss shows estimates are not always cleared.
At $120.68 the stock is 4.3% above the $115.50 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings grow.
CounterEarnings growth scoring 10/10 with a 10.6x forward P/E suggests targets may lag results.
Natural gas supply, the key input, depends on a single pipeline, creating a single point of failure.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Input supply and gas costs stay stable over the next 12 months.
CounterPipeline supply is usually contracted with redundancy, and a disruption could also lift product prices.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 61% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 5.5 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
| news risk | 3.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-3.7% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.47
Upside
-3.7%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.5=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 8.4 and asymmetric R:R of -0.47.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.4, Quality at 8.2, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.5, Sentiment at 5.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.47 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Returns
Trip ifROE falls below 18% from the current 30%.
- P2Earnings Beat Growth
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $135, more than 10% above the current price.
- P4Single Pipeline Supply Risk
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% from the current 27% on input cost pressure.