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MOSMosaic Company (The)Sell4.5·$22.59+7.11%
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Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.59: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.97; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

The Mosaic Company produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through Phosphate (72% of N. American production), Potash (34% of N. American production), and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) segments. Approximately 64% of 2025 net sales came from outside the US; the... Read more

$22.59+6.9% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#7 of 8 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-4.32%
IncomeYield4.17%(5y avg 2.04%)Payout628.57%at-risk
Stop $21.00Target $24.14(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$26.82+18.7%19 analysts
$24.14our TP
$22.59price
$26.82mean
$19
$35

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.59: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.97; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and 8k serious 2.06. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12

Recent Developments — Mosaic Company (The)

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international markets (outside U.S.) (64.0%)
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)150.6
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$6.7B
EV/EBITDA6.2
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE0.6%
Rev Growth14.4%
Beta0.81
Dividend4.17%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.97bearish
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational markets (outside U.S.)64%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we derived approximately 64% of our net sales from customers located outside of the U.S.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-08Item 2.06MEDIUM
    Mosaic announced idling of Araxá Mining and Chemical Complex and related Patrocínio Complex mining in Brazil. Expected pre-tax Q1 2026 book impact of $350-$400M ($275-$300M impairment/writeoffs; balance is severance and other idling costs).
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
0.2
Net Margin
0.2
Operating Margin
0.3
Roa
1.3
Current Ratio
4.7
Moat
5.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -644% FCF/NIQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.5
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
4.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 417.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
3.8
Growth Rank
3.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.2
Support Resistance
4.1
Bollinger
4.3
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)8K SERIOUS 2.06Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.80Resistance $24.50

Price Targets

$21
$24
A.Upside+6.9%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MOS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.59: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.97; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $21.00. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MOS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.14 (+6.9% upside). Prior stop was $21.00. Stop-loss: $21.00.

What are the risks of investing in MOS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international markets (outside U.S.) (64.0%); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is MOS overvalued or undervalued?

Mosaic Company (The) trades at a P/E of 150.6 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MOS?

25 analysts cover MOS with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Mosaic Company (The) do?The Mosaic Company produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through Phosphate (72% of N. American...

The Mosaic Company produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through Phosphate (72% of N. American production), Potash (34% of N. American production), and Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) segments. Approximately 64% of 2025 net sales came from outside the US; the company is the second-largest integrated phosphate producer globally and among the top four potash producers.

Related stocks: UAN (CVR Partners, LP) · CF (CF Industries Holdings, Inc.) · NTR (Nutrien Ltd.) · ICL (ICL Group Ltd.) · SMG (Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The)
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