Amplitude is a growing, free-cash-flow-positive software company in a strong uptrend, but its price already sits above the analyst target, earnings results have been uneven and insiders are selling. The setup offers little margin of safety.
Thesis pillars
- Solid Growth With Fcf→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- Overbought Uptrend Momentum→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.44 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.2% away).
Amplitude provides an AI Analytics Platform that unifies product analytics, session replay, feature and web experimentation, audience activation, and AI-driven insight tools for digital product teams. The company generates revenue primarily through subscription-based pricing... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.44 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Amplitude, Inc.
About Amplitude, Inc.
Amplitude's AI Analytics Platform served 4,797 paying customers, including 27 of the Fortune 100, as the company generated $343.2 million in revenue for fiscal year 2025, up from $299.3 million in 2024. Subscription revenue made up 98% of that total, and the company's dollar-based net retention rate reached 104% for the trailing twelve months, up from 97% a year earlier.
Amplitude earns revenue primarily by selling monthly-tracked-user subscriptions to a platform that bundles Analytics, Session Replay, Feature and Web Experimentation, Audience Activation, Guides and Surveys, and newer AI Agent and AI Feedback tools, the last of which followed the acquisitions of Command AI and Kraftful. The company reaches customers through a combination of direct sales, solution partners, and a self-serve, product-led growth motion, then expands within accounts under a land-and-expand model that layers additional products and use cases onto an initial deployment. Amplitude depends on third-party public cloud infrastructure to run its platform, naming Amazon Web Services as a driver of the timing and amount of its cloud computing costs. The company integrates with more than 100 external data sources and destinations, including Salesforce, Slack, Braze, and Snowflake, positioning its behavioral-data graph as a connective layer across a customer's existing technology stack.
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A key open question for Amplitude is whether its bet on AI Technologies converts into durable differentiation. The company has incorporated large language models into features such as natural-language querying and automated trend summaries and expects to keep increasing investment in this area, but the 10-K cautions that market acceptance of AI-incorporated products is uncertain and that assumptions about pricing, sales cycles, and perceived value 'may be inaccurate.' That risk sits alongside ongoing litigation exposure: Amplitude is currently defending two privacy class actions, after previously defending a third, in addition to having resolved a securities class action and a related shareholder derivative suit filed in the Northern District of California.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Amplitude, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Amplitude, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher? - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Amplitude (AMPL) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Amplitude (AMPL) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Amplitude (AMPL) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.44 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $16.22. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $13.37 reached (−23.4% from $17.44); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $16.22. Stop-loss: $16.22.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).
Amplitude, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 100.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover AMPL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $15.
What does Amplitude, Inc. do?Amplitude provides an AI Analytics Platform that unifies product analytics, session replay, feature and web...
Amplitude provides an AI Analytics Platform that unifies product analytics, session replay, feature and web experimentation, audience activation, and AI-driven insight tools for digital product teams. The company generates revenue primarily through subscription-based pricing sold via direct sales, solution partners, and product-led growth, reporting $343.2 million in revenue for fiscal 2025 across 4,797 paying customers, including 27 of the Fortune 100. Amplitude's land-and-expand model, evidenced by a 104% dollar-based net retention rate, ties its growth to deepening usage within its existing