Value
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.6 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 66.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.55
AMPL · Why this verdict
Why Amplitude (AMPL) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Amplitude is showing a strong growth profile with positive price momentum, backed by a growth score of 8.3 out of 10 and a recent cluster of five analysts flagged in the news. Bull case | Growth score should hold at or above 7.0 over the next 12 months if the growth narrative is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is being scored while the company still posts GAAP losses and has thin analyst coverage, so the strong-growth read may be more sentiment-driven than fundamental. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 4.7 has triggered a leverage penalty in the model's bear case, adding balance-sheet risk on top of the growth story. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully from 4.7 for the leverage penalty to be removed. | →Stable |
| CounterSoftware companies can carry higher D/E from convertible notes or leases without the distress implied by leverage ratios in capital-intensive industries. | ||
Despite a GAAP net loss, Amplitude is generating positive free cash flow, with an FCF margin near 15% and FCF yield near 4.5%, suggesting healthier underlying unit economics than headline profitability implies. Quality breakdown | FCF margin should stay at or above 10% over the next 12 months for this cash-generation thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF can be inflated by working-capital timing or stock-based compensation add-backs that mask the true cash cost of the business. | ||
The position fails the engine's risk/reward asymmetry gate, with roughly 4.2% modeled upside against 15% downside, making the entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should climb back above the 1.5 threshold for the setup to re-qualify as attractive. | →Stable |
| CounterAsymmetry is measured off the current spot price and could improve quickly on a pullback without any change in the underlying business. | ||
Amplitude has missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about -21%, raising doubt about consistent execution ahead of its August 5 report. Earnings | The beat/miss ratio should improve to at least 3 of 4 quarters with a positive average surprise if execution stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two misses were relatively small in absolute EPS terms, and one recent quarter posted a +41% surprise, showing the trend isn't uniformly negative. | ||
Amplitude is showing a strong growth profile with positive price momentum, backed by a growth score of 8.3 out of 10 and a recent cluster of five analysts flagged in the news.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Growth score should hold at or above 7.0 over the next 12 months if the growth narrative is intact.
CounterGrowth is being scored while the company still posts GAAP losses and has thin analyst coverage, so the strong-growth read may be more sentiment-driven than fundamental.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 4.7 has triggered a leverage penalty in the model's bear case, adding balance-sheet risk on top of the growth story.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully from 4.7 for the leverage penalty to be removed.
CounterSoftware companies can carry higher D/E from convertible notes or leases without the distress implied by leverage ratios in capital-intensive industries.
Despite a GAAP net loss, Amplitude is generating positive free cash flow, with an FCF margin near 15% and FCF yield near 4.5%, suggesting healthier underlying unit economics than headline profitability implies.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin should stay at or above 10% over the next 12 months for this cash-generation thesis to hold.
CounterFCF can be inflated by working-capital timing or stock-based compensation add-backs that mask the true cash cost of the business.
The position fails the engine's risk/reward asymmetry gate, with roughly 4.2% modeled upside against 15% downside, making the entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should climb back above the 1.5 threshold for the setup to re-qualify as attractive.
CounterAsymmetry is measured off the current spot price and could improve quickly on a pullback without any change in the underlying business.
Amplitude has missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about -21%, raising doubt about consistent execution ahead of its August 5 report.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat/miss ratio should improve to at least 3 of 4 quarters with a positive average surprise if execution stabilizes.
CounterThe two misses were relatively small in absolute EPS terms, and one recent quarter posted a +41% surprise, showing the trend isn't uniformly negative.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amplitude pairs genuine revenue growth and positive free cash flow with a failed risk/reward gate, elevated leverage, and a recent stretch of earnings misses, making the growth story real but the current entry unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.5 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 4.5%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 82 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.6 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $554,518 (0.047% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸High IV: 89%
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.31
Upside
+4.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.45>1.3, MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.3; weakest: Catalyst at 2.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.3, Sentiment at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.8, Technical at 3.0, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Durable Growth Profile
Trip ifGrowth score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.3 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Failed Asymmetry Risk Reward
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5, flipping the gate from failed to passed.
- P3Earnings Execution Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise average rises above 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, snapping the miss streak.
- P4Elevated Leverage Overhang
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 2.0 from the current 4.7.
- P5Positive Fcf Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 5% from the current ~15%, or free cash flow turns negative for 2 consecutive quarters.