Value
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 8.1 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 100.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.82
AMPL · Why this verdict
Why Amplitude (AMPL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amplitude is a growing, free-cash-flow-positive software company in a strong uptrend, but its price already sits above the analyst target, earnings results have been uneven and insiders are selling. The setup offers little margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is solid at 21% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $100.9M, and the company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 19% and a Rule of 40 score of 40. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% year over year while the FCF margin stays above 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterForward P/E of 100.3x already prices in this growth, and growth confidence is only 0.67. | ||
The $17.42 price is 23.3% above the $13.37 analyst target, so the stock has no analyst-defined upside and 15.0% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analysts should raise targets toward the current price as results arrive, closing the gap over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA price above target often reflects stale targets, and strong momentum plus positive news sentiment can keep the stock above them for a long time. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.4 out of 10, with the price above its 200-day average and 1.7% from the 52-week high, but RSI at 72 marks it as overbought. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should stay above 6.0 as the stock holds above its 200-day average. | →Stable |
| CounterAn overbought RSI of 72 near a 52-week high is a classic setup for a pullback, and the Bollinger component scores 0.0. | ||
Earnings delivery is uneven: one beat and two misses in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of -29.2%. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next two quarters, ending the run of misses. | →Stable |
| CounterThe EPS figures are a few cents per share, so small absolute differences produce large percentage surprises and may overstate the problem. | ||
Insiders sold $7,262,042 (0.334% of market cap) across 5 transactions in 90 days, with no purchases. Net value 90d | Insider selling should taper and net purchases should appear if insiders see value in the stock. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAt 0.334% of market cap the selling is moderate, and institutions are accumulating at the same time. | ||
Growth is solid at 21% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $100.9M, and the company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF margin of 19% and a Rule of 40 score of 40.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% year over year while the FCF margin stays above 15%.
CounterForward P/E of 100.3x already prices in this growth, and growth confidence is only 0.67.
The $17.42 price is 23.3% above the $13.37 analyst target, so the stock has no analyst-defined upside and 15.0% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise targets toward the current price as results arrive, closing the gap over 12 months.
CounterA price above target often reflects stale targets, and strong momentum plus positive news sentiment can keep the stock above them for a long time.
Momentum is strong at 7.4 out of 10, with the price above its 200-day average and 1.7% from the 52-week high, but RSI at 72 marks it as overbought.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should stay above 6.0 as the stock holds above its 200-day average.
CounterAn overbought RSI of 72 near a 52-week high is a classic setup for a pullback, and the Bollinger component scores 0.0.
Earnings delivery is uneven: one beat and two misses in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of -29.2%.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next two quarters, ending the run of misses.
CounterThe EPS figures are a few cents per share, so small absolute differences produce large percentage surprises and may overstate the problem.
Insiders sold $7,262,042 (0.334% of market cap) across 5 transactions in 90 days, with no purchases.
↓DeterioratingNet value 90d
- Expectation
- Insider selling should taper and net purchases should appear if insiders see value in the stock.
CounterAt 0.334% of market cap the selling is moderate, and institutions are accumulating at the same time.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.3 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 19%, FCF yield 3.3%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 40 (pass)
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 1.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 3.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.70 (n=1)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $9,139,001 (0.420% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 87%
- ▸Above max pain $13
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.42%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-1.56
Upside
-23.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.50>1.3, MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.56 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Momentum at 7.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.2, Sentiment at 4.1, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $20 from current $13.37.
- P2Solid Growth With Fcf
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 12% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Overbought Uptrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from current 7.4.
- P4Uneven Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling over 90 days falls below 0.1% of market cap from current 0.334%.