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ALRMAlarm.com Holdings, Inc.Hold5.6·$46.65+0.52%
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Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties across residential, commercial, and multi-family markets, distributing through an independent service provider network. The company generated $1.0112 billion in total revenue in 2025, with SaaS and license... Read more

$46.65+10.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#56 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.88%
Stop $44.07Target $51.33(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$59.00+26.5%6 analysts
$51.33our TP
$46.65price
$59.00mean
$40
$85

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Wide economic moat
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn12.4%
ROE14.8%
Rev Growth11.0%
Beta0.78
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C32.57bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierhardware produced outside the United States
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our hardware is produced outside the United States, including in Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02LOW
    Jeff Bedell temporarily relinquished his role as President, Venture Businesses and Corporate Strategy, effective March 12, 2026, due to a personal family issue requiring substantial focus. He remains a full-time employee and senior advisor to the CEO. No permanent successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
5.4
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.00Resistance $47.19

Price Targets

$44
$51
A.Upside+10.0%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALRM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $51.33 (+10.0%), stop $44.07 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.33 (+10.0% upside). Target $51.33 (+10.0%), stop $44.07 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Stop-loss: $44.07.

What are the risks of investing in ALRM?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ALRM overvalued or undervalued?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ALRM?

14 analysts cover ALRM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $59.

What does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. do?Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties across residential, commercial, and multi-family...

Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties across residential, commercial, and multi-family markets, distributing through an independent service provider network. The company generated $1.0112 billion in total revenue in 2025, with SaaS and license revenue of $689.4 million and hardware sales comprising the balance, paid by service providers as monthly fees.

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