Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ALRM stock price target?

Take-profit $50.46 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $43.65.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ALRM?

Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum; Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum.

Q: Is ALRM overvalued or undervalued?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ALRM?

13 analysts cover ALRM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $58.

Recovery setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $46.60, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties including security, video, energy management, and access control for residential, multifamily, and commercial markets through a network of service provider partners. With 170 million connected devices, the... Read more

$46.60+8.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#71 of 96 Software - Application

Stop $43.65Target $50.46(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1

Analyst target$58.00+24.5%6 analysts

$50.46our TP

$46.60price

$58.00mean

$40

$85

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Risks

Thin upside margin: 8.3%

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1

P/E (Fwd)14.8

Mkt Cap$2.2B

EV/EBITDA14.8

Profit Mgn13.1%

ROE15.8%

Rev Growth8.0%

Beta0.83

DividendNone

Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral

IV69%elevated

Max Pain$38-19.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-18Item 5.02LOW
Jeff Bedell temporarily relinquished duties as President, Venture Businesses and Corporate Strategy effective March 12, 2026, due to a personal family issue. Will continue as full-time employee and senior advisor to the CEO. No reason beyond personal family issue cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.915%1.03

Quality5.715%0.85

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum4.010%0.40

Sentiment6.710%0.67

Insider Activity3.910%0.39

Peer Rank4.010%0.40

Technical Setup3.15%0.16

Risk Profile5.35%0.27

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.29

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance

1.0

Bollinger

1.2

Gap

5.0

52w Position

5.3

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

64 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $41.92Resistance $47.16

Price Targets

$44

$50

A.Upside+8.3%

A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ALRM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $46.60, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $43.65. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.46 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $43.65. Stop-loss: $43.65.

What are the risks of investing in ALRM?

Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is ALRM overvalued or undervalued?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALRM?

13 analysts cover ALRM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. do?Alarm.com operates a cloud-based IoT platform for connected properties including security, video, energy management,...