Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.67
- ▸Attractively valued
ALRM · Why this verdict
Why Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 9.2 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 20 (fail)
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 6.6 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,560,585 (0.114% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 57.00
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.89
Upside
+14.3%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.89 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Value at 7.1, and Quality at 6.2; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Technical at 4.1, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.