TXO screens as statistically cheap and is backed by heavy insider buying, but weak quality metrics, ongoing cash burn, and a failed momentum gate have pushed the engine to recommend exiting the position despite a favorable calculated risk/reward ratio.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Multiple Mispricing→Stable
- Quality Floor Breach Cash Burn→Stable
- Failed Momentum Gate Pullback→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.11: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 4.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and exploitation of conventional oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America. Its acreage positions are concentrated in the Permian Basin of West... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.11: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 4.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About TXO Partners, L.P.
About TXO Partners, L.P.
TXO Partners' producing properties are concentrated in the Permian, San Juan, and Williston Basins, a structure the partnership says leaves it more exposed to regional supply, demand, and regulatory swings than a geographically diversified producer. The partnership holds a 50% interest in the Cross Timbers joint venture with the XTO Entities, which represented approximately 18% of TXO's revenues and 18% of its proved reserves for the year ended December 31, 2025. TXO recorded a $42.4 million impairment on its Permian Basin Cross Timbers assets in 2025.
TXO's cash available for distribution depends directly on oil, natural gas, and NGL prices, which ranged between $55.27 and $93.68 per barrel for crude oil and between $1.58 and $5.29 per MMBtu for natural gas from January 2023 through December 2025. The partnership financed its Williston Basin Transactions with debt, carrying $284.0 million outstanding under its Credit Facility at a 7.6% interest rate as of December 31, 2025, plus a $70.0 million deferred payment on the WRE Acquisition due July 31, 2026. TXO does not retain lawyers to examine title at the time of lease acquisition, relying instead on lease brokers and landmen, and some of its acreage in Colorado, Texas, and New Mexico can be involuntarily pooled by third-party operators under state forced-pooling statutes.
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TXO's reserve base has already shown sensitivity to price cycles: the partnership recorded $223.4 million in impairments on its Permian Basin Cross Timbers assets in 2023 amid a commodity price decline and reserve-recording changes, avoided impairments in 2024 as pricing improved, then recorded a further $42.4 million impairment in 2025 tied to the same Cross Timbers joint venture. Combined with $311.5 million of proved-property impairments recorded from 2014 through 2022, TXO's Permian Basin exposure — run through a 50%-owned joint venture where the XTO Entities hold veto rights over material transactions — has produced a multi-year pattern of write-downs that tracks the broader commodity cycle.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From TXO Partners, L.P.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicPermian, San Juan and Williston Basins10-K Item 1A: 'Currently, our producing properties are concentrated in the Permian, San Juan and Williston Basins, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in a limited number of geographic areas.'
- LOWcounterpartyCross Timbers joint venture18%10-K Item 1A: 'our interest in Cross Timbers represented approximately 18% of our revenues excluding the effects of our commodity derivative contracts and approximately 18% of our proved reserves.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.11: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 4.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $12.35. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.00 (+29.7% upside). Prior stop was $12.35. Stop-loss: $12.35.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian, San Juan and Williston Basins; Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).
TXO Partners, L.P. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover TXO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $20.
What does TXO Partners, L.P. do?TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and...
TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and exploitation of conventional oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America. Its acreage positions are concentrated in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico; the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado; and the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota. TXO Partners, L.P. was formerly known as TXO Energy Partners, L.P. and changed its name to TXO Partners, L.P. in May 2023. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.