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Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In... Read more

$69.00+17.2% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#7 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-11.42%
Stop $63.61Target $80.17(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$92.14+33.5%11 analysts
$80.17our TP
$69.00price
$92.14mean
$102

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.0
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn25.6%
ROE35.1%
Rev Growth97.3%
Beta-0.46
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C73.00bearish
IV113%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $61.51Resistance $75.96

Price Targets

$64
$80
A.Upside+16.2%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts7
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$92

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VIST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $80.17 (+16.2%), stop $63.61 (−8.5%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VIST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.17 (+17.2% upside). Target $80.17 (+16.2%), stop $63.61 (−8.5%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $63.61.

What are the risks of investing in VIST?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is VIST overvalued or undervalued?

Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VIST?

7 analysts cover VIST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. do?Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in...

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

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