CNX Resources combines four consecutive quarterly earnings beats averaging a 39.3% upside surprise, 28% year-over-year revenue growth, and a wide economic moat with 53% gross margins, but 92% commodity concentration in natural gas from a single Appalachian Basin geography and free cash flow representing only 35% of net income introduce compounded concentration and cash-conversion risks that offset the strong underlying business quality.
Thesis pillars
- Geographic Commodity Concentration Risk→Stable
- Fcf Below Net Income Red Flag→Stable
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026
CNX Resources Corporation (CNX) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Appalachian Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas production (92.0%).
CNX Resources is an Appalachian Basin natural gas E&P and midstream company focused on Marcellus and Utica Shale in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, plus coalbed methane operations in Virginia. Production reached 629 net Bcfe in 2025 (92% natural gas) against 9.7 Tcfe of... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Appalachian Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas production (92.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About CNX Resources Corporation
About CNX Resources Corporation
CNX Resources produced 629 net Bcfe in 2025—total average output of 1,723,178 Mcfe per day—from Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale formations in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio, plus coalbed methane properties in Virginia. The production mix was 92% natural gas and 8% liquids against 9.7 Tcfe of proved reserves at December 31, 2025, with 89.5% natural gas. CNX completed the $518 million acquisition of Apex Energy II's upstream and midstream assets on January 27, 2025.
CNX earns revenue from natural gas and NGL sales at market prices primarily under short-term contracts to gas marketers, industrial customers, local distribution companies, and power generation facilities in the Appalachian Basin. The company owns approximately 2,600 miles of natural gas gathering pipelines—Shale gathering systems in Pennsylvania and West Virginia are wholly owned, while Ohio Shale gathering is contracted to third parties. A significant portion of gas is sold through three pipeline systems: Texas Eastern Transmission, Columbia Gas Transmission, and Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage. Average gas lifting cost was $0.15 per Mcfe in 2025 (excluding ad valorem and severance taxes), while average realized gas price excluding hedging was $2.99 per Mcf. NGL volumes are sold to major midstream processors and through direct in-kind sales at plant tailgates. CNX expects 2026 capital expenditures of $556 million to $586 million, weighted toward Shale segment development.
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CNX's hedge book as of January 8, 2026 covers approximately 448.8 Bcf of 2026 estimated production at an average price of $2.74 per Mcf, 379.3 Bcf of 2027 production at $3.28 per Mcf, and 186.5 Bcf of 2028 production at $3.25 per Mcf—against 2026 sales guidance of 605 to 620 Bcfe. The Appalachian Basin structural discount to Henry Hub is an explicit 10-K risk: the company notes this negative basis 'is forecasted to continue in future years for all Appalachian Basin producers' and could widen if pipeline projects to move gas out of the basin are delayed, cancelled, or denied.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From CNX Resources Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — CNX Resources Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS CNX Resources (CNX) Q2 Earnings: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS CNX Resources (CNX) Q2 Earnings: What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS CNX Resources (CNX) Q2 Earnings: What To Expect - tradingview.com — tradingview.com neutral
- NEWS CNX Resources Corp. Experiences Revision in Its Stock Evaluation Amid Strong Performance Metrics - Markets Mojo — Markets Mojo positive
- NEWS CNX Resources shows rising price performance with jump to 82 RS rating - MSN — MSN neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicAppalachian Basin10-K Item 1A: 'Our producing properties are geographically concentrated in the Appalachian Basin, which exacerbates the impact of regional supply and demand factors on our business'
- HIGHCommoditynatural gas production92%10-K Item 1: '92% Natural Gas, 8% Liquids'
- MEDIUMcounterpartythree pipeline systems10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our natural gas is sold on or through three pipeline systems, Texas Eastern Transmission, Columbia Gas Transmission, and Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage'
- MEDIUMhedge_coveragehedging arrangements10-K Item 1A: 'CNX enters into hedging arrangements ... approximately 448.8 Bcf of our estimated 2026 production at an average price of $2.74 per Mcf'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -18.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Appalachian Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas production (92.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $32.41 reached (−14.8%), stop $36.07 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $32.41 reached (−14.8% from $38.05); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $32.41 reached (−14.8%), stop $36.07 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $36.07.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Appalachian Basin; Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas production (92.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
CNX Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of 6.2 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
19 analysts cover CNX with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $37.
What does CNX Resources Corporation do?CNX Resources is an Appalachian Basin natural gas E&P and midstream company focused on Marcellus and Utica Shale in...
CNX Resources is an Appalachian Basin natural gas E&P and midstream company focused on Marcellus and Utica Shale in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, plus coalbed methane operations in Virginia. Production reached 629 net Bcfe in 2025 (92% natural gas) against 9.7 Tcfe of proved reserves, supported by approximately 2,600 miles of owned gathering pipelines.