SM Energy delivered 73% revenue growth with 1000% free cash flow conversion and beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 3.6 times that may reflect commodity-cycle peak earnings which could mean-revert sharply if oil and gas prices decline.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Growth Cash Conversion→Stable
- Commodity Cycle Peak Risk↓Deteriorating
- Strong Earnings Beat Record↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
SM Energy Company (SM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait for pullback to $36.66. At $39.56 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $36.66 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Near 52-week high (4.8% away).
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas,... Read more
Wait for pullback to $36.66. At $39.56 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $36.66 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Near 52-week high (4.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.3x at spot < 1.5 minimum; Earnings in 5 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Score 7.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=energy 3/10). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — SM Energy Company
Latest news
- NEWS Diamondback Energy, APA Corporation, SM Energy, Kosmos Energy, and CNX Resources Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Kn — TradingView positive
- NEWS SM Energy (SM) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS SM Energy (SM) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS SM|SM Energy Co|Price:31.625|Chg%:-0.095 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS SM Energy, ProFrac, and Murphy Oil Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-01Item 1.02MEDIUMSM Energy redeemed all $419,235,000 aggregate principal of its 6.75% Senior Notes due 2026 on June 1, 2026, satisfying all remaining Indenture obligations; notes and related guarantees cancelled upon settlement.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOWSM Energy amended the Change of Control Executive Severance Agreement for CEO Elizabeth A. McDonald on May 21, 2026, providing 3x base salary plus target bonus upon qualifying termination within 2.5 years of a change of control; no departure or new appointment.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-12Item 1.02MEDIUMSM Energy redeemed all $400,000,000 aggregate principal of its 5.000% Senior Notes due 2026 on May 11, 2026, satisfying all remaining Indenture obligations; notes and related guarantees cancelled upon settlement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $36.66. At $39.56 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $36.66 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Near 52-week high (4.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.3x at spot < 1.5 minimum; Earnings in 5 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Target $41.60 (+5.2%), stop $34.09 (−16.0%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 7.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $41.60 (+5.2% upside). Target $41.60 (+5.2%), stop $34.09 (−16.0%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $34.09.
Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Near 52-week high (4.8% away); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
SM Energy Company trades at a P/E of 6.9 (forward 4.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
26 analysts cover SM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $46.
What does SM Energy Company do?SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production...
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.