Skip to main content
TKRTimken Company (The)Sell5.4·$138.00+4.37%
SellModerate Confidence

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Beat Streak Rising EstimatesStable
  • Golden Cross Breakout MomentumDeteriorating
  • Exceptional Financial StrengthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Earnings in 5 days (2026-08-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $138.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$138.00-7.4% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.68%
IncomeYield1.03%(5y avg 1.69%)Payout31.82%sustainable
Stop $127.28Target $140.49(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$144.91+5.0%11 analysts
$140.49our TP
$138.00price
$144.91mean
$129
$160

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $138.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/7 gates (clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.9
P/E (Fwd)18.3
Mkt Cap$9.2B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn6.6%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth8.0%
Beta1.20
Dividend1.03%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV59%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    NOMINEES | | FOR | | WITHHOLD | | BROKER NON-VOTES | | | | | | Lucian Boldea | | 59,598,638 | | 948,854 | | 3,182,667 Maria A. Crowe | | 58,028,580 | | 2,518,912 | | 3,182,667 Elizabeth A. Harrell | | 58,197,705 | | 2,349,787 | | 3,182,667 Richard G. Kyle | [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.9
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $131.22Resistance $143.36

Price Targets

$127
$140
A.Upside-7.4%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.4% upside)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $138.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $127.28. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $140.49 (-7.4% upside). Prior stop was $127.28. Stop-loss: $127.28.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 31.9 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKR?

17 analysts cover TKR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $145.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

Related stocks: KMT (Kennametal Inc.) · SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.) · LECO (Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.) · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) · HLMN (Hillman Solutions Corp.)
Home Stocks TKR

Latest news

Latest News

MSN93d ago
Yahoo Finance93d ago
MarketBeat93d ago
Moomoo93d ago
MarketBeat93d agoEarnings
Thelegaladvocate.com64d ago
Seeking Alpha65d ago
Yahoo Finance65d ago
GuruFocus65d ago
TradingKey37d ago
GuruFocus37d ago
The Globe and Mail8d agoAnalyst
MarketBeat9d agoEarnings
GuruFocus9d ago
Investing.com India44d ago
Simplywall.st44d ago
Newsline.com44d ago
The Globe and Mail16d agoAnalyst
Lelezard107d agoEarnings
MarketBeat107d ago
Loading more...