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SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc.Sell5.7·$78.99-1.41%
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Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Sell if holding. At $78.99, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (15.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%).

Stanley Black & Decker provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and engineered fastening solutions globally with $15.1 billion in 2025 consolidated revenues across Tools & Outdoor ($13.2B, 87%) and Engineered Fastening ($2.0B, 13%) segments. Approximately 62% of 2025... Read more

$78.99+3.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.76%
IncomeYield4.14%(5y avg 3.49%)Payout135.66%at-risk
Stop $74.22Target $81.49(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$90.54+14.6%15 analysts
$81.49our TP
$78.99price
$90.54mean
$120

Sell if holding. At $78.99, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (15.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (15.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%)
Thin upside margin: 3.2%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.8
P/E (Fwd)12.9
Mkt Cap$12.5B
EV/EBITDA11.4
Profit Mgn2.4%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta1.20
Dividend4.14%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$33-58.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerThe Home Depot15%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Home Depot accounted for approximately 15% and 14% of the Company’s consolidated net sales in 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomerLowe's12%
    10-K Item 1: 'while Lowe’s accounted for approximately 12% and 14% of the Company’s consolidated net sales in 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • HIGHGeographicUnited States62%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 62% of the Company’s 2025 revenues were generated in the United States'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders at 2026 Annual Meeting on April 24, 2026 approved the Amended and Restated 2024 Omnibus Award Plan, adding 7,750,000 shares and extending the plan term. Routine equity compensation plan approval.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
5.6
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.38Resistance $81.17

Price Targets

$74
$81
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SWK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $78.99, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (15.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $74.22. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SWK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.49 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $74.22. Stop-loss: $74.22.

What are the risks of investing in SWK?

Concentration risk — Customer: The Home Depot (15.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.2%.

Is SWK overvalued or undervalued?

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.8 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SWK?

24 analysts cover SWK with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $91.

What does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. do?Stanley Black & Decker provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and engineered fastening solutions globally...

Stanley Black & Decker provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and engineered fastening solutions globally with $15.1 billion in 2025 consolidated revenues across Tools & Outdoor ($13.2B, 87%) and Engineered Fastening ($2.0B, 13%) segments. Approximately 62% of 2025 revenues were generated in the United States, with significant exposure to home centers and mass merchants.

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