Stanley Black & Decker has delivered perfect earnings execution over four consecutive quarters, averaging a 56% upside surprise, and its technical momentum is strong despite a negative reward-to-risk ratio that limits new entry appeal at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Technical Momentum Breakout—
- Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Sell if holding. At $103.61, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers (rare earth components).
Stanley Black & Decker manufactures hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and engineered fastening systems globally, generating $15.1 billion in 2025 consolidated revenues across Tools & Outdoor ($13.2 billion, 87%) and Engineered Fastening ($2.0 billion, 13%). The company... Read more
Sell if holding. At $103.61, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers (rare earth components). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Lifted Guidance, Is The Recovery Already Priced In? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Is Up 6.8% After Raising 2026 EPS Outlook And Boosting Payouts - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Compared to Estimates, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Why Is Stanley Black & Decker Stock Falling Wednesday? - Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE:SWK) - Benzinga — Benzinga negative
- NEWS Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE:SWK) Reports Q2 CY2026 In Line With Expectations - StockStory — StockStory positive
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States62%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 62% of the Company's 2025 revenues were generated in the United States'
- LOWCustomerHome Depot15%10-K Item 1: 'The Home Depot accounted for approximately 15%...of the Company's consolidated net sales in 2025'
- LOWCustomerLowe's12%10-K Item 1: 'Lowe's accounted for approximately 12%...of the Company's consolidated net sales in 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertwo largest customers27%10-K Item 1A: 'the two largest customers comprised approximately 27% of consolidated net sales'
- HIGHSuppliersole-source suppliers (rare earth components)10-K Item 1A: 'components requiring rare earth minerals sourced from China...the Company and its suppliers may rely on one or very few suppliers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved the Amended and Restated 2024 Omnibus Award Plan at the April 24, 2026 Annual Meeting, authorizing 7,750,000 additional shares, adjusting the fungible ratio to 2.71, adding a one-year minimum vesting period, and extending the plan term. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $103.61, A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers (rare earth components). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $98.25. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $87.00 reached (−16.0% from $103.61); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $98.25. Stop-loss: $98.25.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (62.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers (rare earth components); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.3 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover SWK with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $100.
What does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. do?Stanley Black & Decker manufactures hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and engineered fastening systems...
Stanley Black & Decker manufactures hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and engineered fastening systems globally, generating $15.1 billion in 2025 consolidated revenues across Tools & Outdoor ($13.2 billion, 87%) and Engineered Fastening ($2.0 billion, 13%). The company sells primarily through home centers and mass merchants, with Home Depot and Lowe's representing approximately 15% and 12% of consolidated net sales respectively.