Hillman Solutions offers a compelling valuation at roughly 11x forward earnings with 32% upside to the analyst target and a roughly 4.6-to-1 risk/reward in the investor's favor, but the absence of a competitive moat, below-average quality metrics, and a confirmed downtrend despite an overbought near-term rally argue for patience over immediate deployment.
Thesis pillars
- No Moat Below Average Quality→Stable
- Deep Value Large Upside To Target→Stable
- Recovery Momentum Vs Downtrend Conflict→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE — to North American retail chains through Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments, generating $1,552.2 million in... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-28Recent Developments — Hillman Solutions Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Hillman Solutions Corp. ($HLMN) CEO 2025 Pay Revealed - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS HLMN Hillman Solutions posts Q4 2025 earnings above estimates, with stock climbing on solid year-over-year revenue growt — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La positive
- NEWS Earnings Preview: HLMN to Report Financial Results Post-market on April 27 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 positive
- NEWS Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.01 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Industrial Goods Companies: Equifax (EFX), Hillman Solutions (HLMN) and Northrop Grumman (NOC — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-07-31T05:18:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop two customers43%10-K Item 1: 'the top two of which accounted for approximately $674.3 million, or approximately 43% of our total revenues in 2025'
- LOWCustomerHome Depot23%10-K Item 1: 'Home Depot was the single largest customer, representing approximately $349.9 million or 22.5% of our total revenues'
- LOWCustomerLowe's21%10-K Item 1: 'Lowe’s was the second largest customer at approximately $324.4 million or 20.9% of our total revenues'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina sourcing33%10-K Item 1A: 'We estimate we source approximately 33% of our products from China'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $10.44 (+27.6%), stop $7.61 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.44 (+27.8% upside). Target $10.44 (+27.6%), stop $7.61 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $7.61.
Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Hillman Solutions Corp. trades at a P/E of 44.7 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
14 analysts cover HLMN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Hillman Solutions Corp. do?Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE —...
Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE — to North American retail chains through Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments, generating $1,552.2 million in net sales in 2025. Home Depot and Lowe's together represent 43% of revenue; proprietary robotic key duplication kiosks (MinuteKey, KeyKrafter) deployed at retailer locations provide a recurring equipment-and-consumables revenue stream.