Skip to main content
TKRTimken Company (The)Sell4.8·$116.25-2.64%
SellModerate Confidence

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Beat Streak Rising EstimatesImproving
  • Golden Cross Breakout MomentumDeteriorating
  • Exceptional Financial StrengthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $116.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$116.25+10.6% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#8 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.22%
IncomeYield1.21%(5y avg 1.69%)Payout38.21%sustainable
Stop $111.99Target $128.54(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$147.75+27.1%11 analysts
$128.54our TP
$116.25price
$147.75mean
$160

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $116.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Weak overall score: 4.8/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.4
P/E (Fwd)16.4
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE8.5%
Rev Growth7.5%
Beta1.21
Dividend1.21%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV67%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-31Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On July 29, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of The Timken Company (the "Company") appointed Stephen P. Ribaudo to the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company effective as of September 1, 2026. Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.4

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
1.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.7
Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.8
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $115.45Resistance $134.60

Price Targets

$112
$129
A.Upside+10.6%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $116.25 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $111.99. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $128.54 (+10.6% upside). Prior stop was $111.99. Stop-loss: $111.99.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 32.4 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKR?

17 analysts cover TKR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $148.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

Related stocks: KMT (Kennametal Inc.) · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) · HLMN (Hillman Solutions Corp.) · TTC (Toro Company (The)) · SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.)
Home Stocks TKR

Latest news

Latest News

Tradingkey.com48d ago
MSN138d ago
Yahoo Finance138d ago
MarketBeat138d ago
Moomoo138d ago
MarketBeat139d agoEarnings
Thelegaladvocate.com110d ago
Seeking Alpha110d ago
Yahoo Finance110d ago
GuruFocus111d ago
GuruFocus83d ago
The Globe and Mail54d agoAnalyst
MarketBeat55d agoEarnings
GuruFocus55d ago
Investing.com India89d ago
Simplywall.st90d ago
Newsline.com90d ago
The Globe and Mail61d agoAnalyst
Lelezard152d agoEarnings
MarketBeat152d ago
Loading more...