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TKRTimken Company (The)Sell5.4·$139.03+3.24%
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Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $139.03 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-1.6% away).

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$139.03-1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#7 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.62%
IncomeYield1.07%(5y avg 1.69%)Payout31.82%sustainable
Stop $129.86Target $136.32(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$136.55-1.8%11 analysts
$136.32our TP
$139.03price
$136.55mean
$120
$158

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $139.03 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-1.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-1.6% away)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.6
P/E (Fwd)18.6
Mkt Cap$9.4B
EV/EBITDA14.0
Profit Mgn6.6%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth8.0%
Beta1.23
Dividend1.07%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$90-35.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    NOMINEES | | FOR | | WITHHOLD | | BROKER NON-VOTES | | | | | | Lucian Boldea | | 59,598,638 | | 948,854 | | 3,182,667 Maria A. Crowe | | 58,028,580 | | 2,518,912 | | 3,182,667 Elizabeth A. Harrell | | 58,197,705 | | 2,349,787 | | 3,182,667 Richard G. Kyle | [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On April 16, 2026, Andreas Roellgen ceased serving as Executive Vice President and President of Engineered Bearings of The Timken Company (the "Company") effective as of the close of business that day. As an employee who is domiciled in Europe, Mr.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    THE TIMKEN COMPANY | By: | /s/ Hansal N. Patel | Hansal N. Patel | Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary Date: February 13, 2026
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.1
Bollinger
0.7
Gap
5.0
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
89 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $107.15Resistance $139.10

Price Targets

$130
$136
A.Upside-1.9%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $139.03 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-1.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $129.86. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.32 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $129.86. Stop-loss: $129.86.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-1.6% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 30.6 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKR?

16 analysts cover TKR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $137.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

Related stocks: KMT (Kennametal Inc.) · HLMN (Hillman Solutions Corp.) · SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.) · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) · LECO (Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.)
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