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TKRTimken Company (The)Sell5.3·$114.83
SellModerate Confidence

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Beat Streak Rising Estimates→Stable
  • Golden Cross Breakout Momentum↑Improving
  • Exceptional Financial Strength→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Timken Company (The) (TKR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Earnings in 4 days (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $114.83, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa... Read more

$114.83+9.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#7 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.12%
IncomeYield1.27%(5y avg 1.61%)Payout38.21%sustainable
Stop $108.41Analyst target $125.45(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst consensus$144.20+25.6%11 analysts
$125.45Analyst target
$114.83price
$144.20mean
$160

Sell if holding. At $114.83, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.3%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.1
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$8.0B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE8.5%
Rev Growth7.5%
Beta1.18
Dividend1.27%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV52%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-31Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On July 29, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of The Timken Company (the "Company") appointed Stephen P. Ribaudo to the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company effective as of September 1, 2026. Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.4

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.8
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $106.25Resistance $123.11

Price Targets

$108
$125
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $114.83, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $108.41. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKR stock price target?

Analyst target: $125.45 (+9.3% upside). Prior stop was $108.41. Stop-loss: $108.41.

What are the risks of investing in TKR?

Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Is TKR overvalued or undervalued?

Timken Company (The) trades at a P/E of 31.1 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKR?

17 analysts cover TKR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $144.

What does Timken Company (The) do?Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related...

Timken designs and manages a portfolio of engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and provides related services. The Company's growing portfolio features many strong brands, including Timken®, GGB®, Philadelphia Gear®, Cone Drive®, CGI®, Rollon®, Nadella®, Rosa Sistemi®, Diamond®, Drives®, Groeneveld®, BEKA®, Des-Case®, Lovejoy®, PT Tech®, Torsion Control Products® and Lagersmit®.

Related stocks: KMT (Kennametal Inc.) · HLMN (Hillman Solutions Corp.) · LECO (Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.) · SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.) · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated)
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