Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.3 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.82
TKR · Why this verdict
Why Timken Company (The) (TKR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 5.6 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.2 |
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 81)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=1)
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $7,186,321 (0.078% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $90
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 109.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.79
Upside
-11.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.79 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.6, Sentiment at 6.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Peer rank at 4.1, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.