J.M. Smucker Company trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.06, but a quality score below the minimum threshold, heavy customer and supplier concentration, a confirmed death cross, and the stock already trading above its price target leave the current setup unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Value Multiple Below Threshold Quality↑Improving
- Heavy Customer And Supplier Concentration→Stable
- Death Cross Recovery Pattern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. At $121.14, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States.
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products across four segments — U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), Frozen Handheld and Spreads (Jif, Smucker's, Uncrustables), Pet Foods (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Sweet Baked Snacks... Read more
Sell if holding. At $121.14, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
Walmart accounted for 33% of The J.M. Smucker Company's net sales in fiscal 2025, and the company's top 10 customers together made up approximately 60% of consolidated net sales, concentrated almost entirely in the United States — net sales outside the U.S. were just 4% of the total. Smucker's four reportable segments carry brands including Folgers and Dunkin' coffee, Jif and Uncrustables, Meow Mix and Milk-Bone pet products, and Hostess sweet baked goods.
Smucker sells through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, and mass merchandisers, competing against both branded rivals — including The Kraft Heinz Company, Nestlé S.A., and General Mills — and private-label products, which held a 15.2% dollar average market share in the categories where Smucker competes, up from 13.7% a year earlier. Coffee, peanuts, flour, sugar, oils and fats, and fruit are the company's primary agricultural inputs, managed partly through futures, basis, options, and fixed-price contracts; green coffee is sourced solely from foreign countries and is subject to weather, geopolitical, and supply-and-demand volatility. Smucker licenses the Dunkin' trademark from DD IP Holder LLC through 2039 for packaged retail coffee products, paying royalties on those sales. The company also relies on single-source suppliers for several inputs, including Keurig for K-Cup pods, JDE Peet's for liquid coffee, and Graham Packaging for Folgers packaging.
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Beyond its customer concentration, Smucker carries a distinct single-site production risk: the 10-K discloses that substantially all of its coffee production takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana, an area subject to hurricanes and other weather-related events, with additional facilities in tornado- and wildfire-prone states including Alabama, Kansas, Arkansas, and California. Layered on top of that geographic manufacturing concentration, the company depends on single-source suppliers for K-Cup pods, liquid coffee, and Folgers packaging, so a weather event in New Orleans and a single-source supplier disruption represent two independent points of failure for the same coffee business, rather than a single, diversifiable risk.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Hold on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $136 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Bernstein Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $157 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS JM Smucker Analysts Raise Their Forecasts After Upbeat Q1 Results — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $150 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $144 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-14T07:32:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers60%10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales.'
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart33%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries amounted to 33 percent of net sales in both 2025 and 2024 and 34 percent of net sales in 2023.'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States10-K Item 1: 'the majority of our sales are in the United States ... Net sales outside the U.S., subject to foreign currency translation, represented 4 percent of consolidated net sales for 2025.'
- HIGHGeographiccoffee production in New Orleans, Louisiana10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our coffee production takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana and is subject to risks associated with hurricane and other weather-related events'
- HIGHSupplierKeurig10-K Item 1A: 'Keurig is our single-source supplier for K-Cup® pods, which are used in its proprietary Keurig® K-Cup® brewing system.'
- HIGHSupplierJDE Peet's10-K Item 1A: 'JDE Peet's N.V. ... is our single-source supplier for liquid coffee for our Away From Home business'
- HIGHSupplierGraham Packaging10-K Item 1A: 'Graham Packaging Company, L.P. ... is our single-source supplier for the packaging of our Folgers coffee products.'
- HIGHCommoditygreen coffee10-K Item 1: 'Green coffee, along with certain other raw materials, is sourced solely from foreign countries, and its supply and price is subject to high volatility due to factors such as weather'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $121.14, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $114.06. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $127.29 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $114.06. Stop-loss: $114.06.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Thin upside margin: 5.1%.
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of 56.6 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $141.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products across four segments — U.S. Retail...
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products across four segments — U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), Frozen Handheld and Spreads (Jif, Smucker's, Uncrustables), Pet Foods (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Sweet Baked Snacks (Hostess) — sold mainly through North American retail outlets. Walmart accounted for 33% of net sales in fiscal 2025, and the top 10 customers together made up about 60% of consolidated net sales.