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The Marzetti Company (MZTI) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $126.39. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $130.14. Engine's entry $126.39 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5.

The Marzetti Company (formerly Lancaster Colony) is an Ohio-based manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products sold through Retail and Foodservice channels, with 3,700 employees and 14 food plants in the U.S. Retail brands include Marzetti dressings/dips, Sister... Read more

$130.14+27.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 26 Packaged Foods
Entry $126.39(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $118.10Target $160.95(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.7:1Setup A.R:R 6.0:1
Analyst target$185.00+42.2%5 analysts
$160.95our TP
$130.14price
$185.00mean
$232

Wait for pullback to $126.39. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $130.14. Engine's entry $126.39 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.0
P/E (Fwd)17.8
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA11.4
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE17.9%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta0.49
Dividend3.07%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.56bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$95-27.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerChick-fil-A29%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total net sales attributed to Chick-fil-A...totaled 29%, 28% and 26% of consolidated net sales for 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomerWalmart19%
    10-K Item 1: 'Net sales attributed to Walmart Inc. ("Walmart") totaled 19%, 18% and 18% of consolidated net sales for 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02LOW
    Greg Hughes appointed to Board of Directors as Class I director effective Feb 11, 2026. No material interest in any Company transaction. Standard non-employee director compensation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $124.25Resistance $146.86

Price Targets

$118
$126
$161
A.Upside+23.7%
A.R:R3.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)6.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MZTI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $126.39. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $130.14. Engine's entry $126.39 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $160.95 (+23.7%), stop $118.10 (−10.2%), Setup A.R:R 6.0:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MZTI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $160.95 (+27.4% upside). Target $160.95 (+23.7%), stop $118.10 (−10.2%), Setup A.R:R 6.0:1. Stop-loss: $118.10.

What are the risks of investing in MZTI?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5.

Is MZTI overvalued or undervalued?

The Marzetti Company trades at a P/E of 20.0 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MZTI?

11 analysts cover MZTI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $185.

What does The Marzetti Company do?The Marzetti Company (formerly Lancaster Colony) is an Ohio-based manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products...

The Marzetti Company (formerly Lancaster Colony) is an Ohio-based manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products sold through Retail and Foodservice channels, with 3,700 employees and 14 food plants in the U.S. Retail brands include Marzetti dressings/dips, Sister Schubert's rolls, New York Bakery breads, and licensed products (Chick-fil-A, Olive Garden, Buffalo Wild Wings). Chick-fil-A and Walmart together represent ~48% of consolidated net sales.

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