J.M. Smucker Company trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.06, but a quality score below the minimum threshold, heavy customer and supplier concentration, a confirmed death cross, and the stock already trading above its price target leave the current setup unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Value Multiple Below Threshold Quality↑Improving
- Heavy Customer And Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Death Cross Recovery Pattern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jun 9, 2026
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. At $125.46, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: KDP single-source liquid coffee and pods.
The J.M. Smucker Company makes and markets branded food and beverage products, mainly in North America, across five reportable segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, Frozen Handheld and Spreads, Pet Foods, Sweet Baked Snacks and Away From Home. Brands include Folgers, Dunkin', Café... Read more
Sell if holding. At $125.46, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: KDP single-source liquid coffee and pods. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
The J.M. Smucker Company, established in 1897 and incorporated in Ohio in 1921, sells branded food and beverage products through five reportable segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, Sweet Baked Snacks and Away From Home. Net sales outside the United States, mostly in Canada, represented 4 percent of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2026. Its principal trademarks include Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo, Uncrustables, Jif, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone and Hostess.
Products reach consumers through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores and mass merchandisers, while Away From Home sells through foodservice distributors and operators. The Dunkin' brand is used under three licenses that run until January 1, 2039 and carry royalty payments. Raw materials are mainly commodities, agricultural products and packaging: green coffee is sourced solely from foreign countries, peanuts, flour and sugar come mainly from North America, and futures, basis, options and fixed-price contracts manage price volatility for a significant portion of commodity costs. Named competitors include Kraft Heinz, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Nestlé and Mars, and private label held a 14.0 dollar average market share in the U.S. Retail and Sweet Baked Snacks categories during the 52 weeks ended April 19, 2026, up from 13.7 a year earlier. Several single-source and primary-source arrangements, including Keurig Dr. Pepper for single-serve pods and liquid coffee and Graham Packaging for Folgers packaging, add supply dependencies.
Show full overview
Customer concentration is the clearest pressure point. Sales to Walmart and its subsidiaries, including Sam's Club, equaled 34 percent of net sales in fiscal 2026 versus 33 percent in both 2025 and 2024, and the top 10 customers together accounted for about 60 percent. Walmart also represented $187.4 million, or 29 percent, of net trade receivables at April 30, 2026. The 10-K states that major customers are generally not bound by long-term supply contracts, so a shift of shelf space to private label or rival brands could weigh on sales and profit. Production concentration compounds this: substantially all coffee production takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana, exposing that output to hurricane and other weather events.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS The J.M. Smucker Co. Declares Quarterly Dividend of $1.12 Per Share — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on JM Smucker, Lowers Price Target to $137 — benzinga Oct 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Bernstein Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $160 — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Michael Burry Warns Anthropic’s Valuation Could Buy 78 Profitable S&P 500 Companies: ‘Fun Game in Times Like These’ — benzinga Oct 8, 2026 negative
- NEWS J.M. Smucker Files Prospectus For Offering Mixed Shelf; Terms Undisclosed — benzinga Sep 23, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart34%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries, including Sam’s Club, amounted to 34 percent of net sales in 2026.'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers60%10-K Item 1A: 'our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales'
- HIGHSupplierKDP single-source liquid coffee and pods10-K Item 1A: 'KDP is our primary supplier of single-serve pods and the single-source supplier of liquid coffee for our Away From Home business.'
- HIGHSupplierGraham Packaging10-K Item 1A: 'Graham Packaging Company, L.P. ... is the single-source supplier for packaging used in our Folgers coffee products'
- HIGHGeographicNew Orleans, Louisiana coffee production10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our coffee production takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $125.46, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: KDP single-source liquid coffee and pods. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $119.46. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $127.63 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $119.46. Stop-loss: $119.46.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: KDP single-source liquid coffee and pods; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of 58.6 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $142.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?The J.M. Smucker Company makes and markets branded food and beverage products, mainly in North America, across five...
The J.M. Smucker Company makes and markets branded food and beverage products, mainly in North America, across five reportable segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, Frozen Handheld and Spreads, Pet Foods, Sweet Baked Snacks and Away From Home. Brands include Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo, Uncrustables, Jif, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone and Hostess, sold through food retailers, clubs, mass merchandisers and foodservice. Sales to Walmart were 34 percent of net sales in fiscal 2026.