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SJMThe J.M. Smucker CompanySell5.7·$112.39+10.44%
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The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Earnings in 0 days (2026-06-09). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $112.39: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

J.M. Smucker markets branded food and beverage products in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads (Uncrustables, Jif), U.S. Retail Pet Foods (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Sweet Baked Snacks (Hostess). Walmart... Read more

$112.39+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#8 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.15%
IncomeYield4.32%(5y avg 3.38%)Payout86.06%at-risk
Stop $105.39Target $112.93(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$115.47+2.7%17 analysts
$112.93our TP
$112.39price
$115.47mean
$95
$134

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $112.39: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10

Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jun 9, 2026today· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-7.5% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$10.9B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn-14.1%
ROE-20.7%
Rev Growth7.0%
Beta0.26
Dividend4.32%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.42bullish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.2
Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
6.5

Unprofitable operations — net margin -14.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
2.8
Roa
3.2
Current Ratio
3.4
Moat
3.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Operating Margin
7.5
No competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.7
Gap
3.0
52w Position
9.0
Extreme gap up (5.1%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 8.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $98.16Resistance $115.23

Price Targets

$105
$113
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-09 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SJM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $112.39: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $105.39. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SJM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $112.93 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $105.39. Stop-loss: $105.39.

What are the risks of investing in SJM?

Target reached (-7.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is SJM overvalued or undervalued?

The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SJM?

25 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $115.

What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?J.M. Smucker markets branded food and beverage products in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café...

J.M. Smucker markets branded food and beverage products in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads (Uncrustables, Jif), U.S. Retail Pet Foods (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Sweet Baked Snacks (Hostess). Walmart represents 33% of net sales; top 10 customers collectively represent ~60% of consolidated net sales.

Related stocks: CENTA (Central Garden & Pet Company) · CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company) · HLF (Herbalife Ltd.) · MKC (McCormick & Company, Incorporat) · MKC-V (McCormick & Company, Incorporat)
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