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SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.Hold5.4·$26.35+0.37%
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Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork in the U.S. under brands including Smithfield, Eckrich, and Nathan's Famous, employing approximately 32,000 people with 38 processing plants in 18 states. Packaged Meats generated 56% of 2025 sales and 85% of operating... Read more

$26.35+2.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.10%
IncomeYield4.76%Payout41.34%sustainable
Stop $25.51Target $27.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$31.36+19.0%7 analysts
$27.28our TP
$26.35price
$31.36mean
$35

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$10.3B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn6.5%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth0.8%
Beta
Dividend4.76%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV77%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart15%
    10-K Item 1: 'Walmart Inc...accounted for approximately 15%, 16% and 15% of our consolidated sales in fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers42%
    10-K Item 1: 'Cumulatively, our top ten customers accounted for 42%, 39% and 39% of our consolidated sales in fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
3.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
5.6
Quality Rank
6.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.5
Bollinger
2.0
52w Position
8.1
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.33Resistance $27.09

Price Targets

$26
$27
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.3% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $27.28 (+3.5%), stop $25.51 (−3.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.28 (+2.3% upside). Target $27.28 (+3.5%), stop $25.51 (−3.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $25.51.

What are the risks of investing in SFD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Weak growth.

Is SFD overvalued or undervalued?

Smithfield Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SFD?

11 analysts cover SFD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Smithfield Foods, Inc. do?Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork in the U.S. under brands including Smithfield, Eckrich, and...

Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork in the U.S. under brands including Smithfield, Eckrich, and Nathan's Famous, employing approximately 32,000 people with 38 processing plants in 18 states. Packaged Meats generated 56% of 2025 sales and 85% of operating profit; WH Group (Hong Kong) controls approximately 87% of shares outstanding.

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