McDonald's combines a high-quality franchise with strong margins, three of four recent quarterly beats, a low-volatility defensive profile, and a favorable risk/reward of 1.86-to-1 with 6.5% remaining to the analyst consensus target; a free cash flow conversion rate of 69% of net income and a flagged high dividend figure warrant monitoring of cash generation quality before increasing exposure.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Defensive Franchise→Stable
- Fcf Conversion Below Net Income→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $252.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth.
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $252.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: conservative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — McDonald's Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Is It Time To Reassess McDonald's (MCD) After The Recent Share Price Pullback? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS McDonald's: Value Strategy Holds, But Not A Q1 Catalyst (NYSE:MCD) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS McDonald’s USA president Erlinger sells $93,276 of MCD stock - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) Insider Joseph Erlinger Sells 333 Shares - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS MCD Stock Breakout Watch: The Hidden Opportunity Investors Are Talking About - vocal.media — vocal.media positive
Generated 2026-09-14T07:32:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-04Item 5.02MEDIUM. Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 3, 2026, Joseph M.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $252.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $244.99. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $290.16 (+14.9% upside). Prior stop was $244.99. Stop-loss: $244.99.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth; Negative momentum.
McDonald's Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.5 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
41 analysts cover MCD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $315.
What does McDonald's Corporation do?McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and...
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.