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DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.Sell4.8·$200.50+2.30%
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Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $200.50 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 full-service restaurants across 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn Steakhouse (591), Chuy's (108), Ruth's Chris (82), The Capital Grille (71), and others in the U.S. and Canada. Fiscal 2025 total sales were $12.08B across four... Read more

$200.50+1.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#16 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.02%
IncomeYield3.06%(5y avg 3.00%)Payout62.17%
Stop $189.13Target $203.02(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$225.58+12.5%26 analysts
$203.02our TP
$200.50price
$225.58mean
$156
$276

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $200.50 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jun 25, 202616d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.7
P/E (Fwd)17.2
Mkt Cap$22.4B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn8.7%
ROE51.5%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.59
Dividend3.06%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70bullish
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$330+64.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.3
Revenue Growth
4.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 306.0%
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 16d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $189.97Resistance $210.43

Price Targets

$189
$203
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.4% upside)
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (16d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $200.50 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $189.13. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the DRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $203.02 (+1.4% upside). Prior stop was $189.13. Stop-loss: $189.13.

What are the risks of investing in DRI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is DRI overvalued or undervalued?

Darden Restaurants, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DRI?

34 analysts cover DRI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $226.

What does Darden Restaurants, Inc. do?Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 full-service restaurants across 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn...

Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 full-service restaurants across 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn Steakhouse (591), Chuy's (108), Ruth's Chris (82), The Capital Grille (71), and others in the U.S. and Canada. Fiscal 2025 total sales were $12.08B across four reportable segments; Darden acquired Chuy's in October 2024 for $613.7M net.

Related stocks: YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · CAVA (CAVA Group, Inc.) · MCD (McDonald's Corporation)
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