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Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. At $196.01, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.4%.

Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 company-owned full-service restaurants in the U.S. and Canada as of May 25, 2025, under 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn Steakhouse (591), Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen (181), Chuy's (108), Yard House, Ruth's Chris, and The Capital... Read more

$196.01+3.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#13 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $186.25Target $202.93(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$225.48+15.0%27 analysts
$202.93our TP
$196.01price
$225.48mean
$156
$272

Sell if holding. At $196.01, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.4%. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.4%
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)17.6
Mkt Cap$23.0B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn8.7%
ROE51.5%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.63
Dividend2.99%
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV46%normal
Max Pain$150-23.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.3
Revenue Growth
4.0

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
5.5
Macd
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $186.91Resistance $204.55

Price Targets

$186
$203
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $196.01, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.4%. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $186.25. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the DRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $202.93 (+3.4% upside). Prior stop was $186.25. Stop-loss: $186.25.

What are the risks of investing in DRI?

Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is DRI overvalued or undervalued?

Darden Restaurants, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DRI?

36 analysts cover DRI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $225.

What does Darden Restaurants, Inc. do?Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 company-owned full-service restaurants in the U.S. and Canada as of May 25, 2025,...

Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 company-owned full-service restaurants in the U.S. and Canada as of May 25, 2025, under 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn Steakhouse (591), Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen (181), Chuy's (108), Yard House, Ruth's Chris, and The Capital Grille, plus 154 franchised locations globally. Revenue is primarily from restaurant sales at company-owned locations.

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