Restaurant Brands International combines strong momentum, an excellent free cash flow conversion of 173%, and positive news sentiment, but two consecutive earnings misses averaging -51% negative surprise and a stock already near its analyst price target with only 2.2% upside mean the risk-reward is unfavorable at the current price.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Growth→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern→Stable
- Thin Upside Poor Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Wait for pullback to $70.60. At $74.52 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $70.60 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K,... Read more
Wait for pullback to $70.60. At $74.52 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $70.60 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Restaurant Brands International
Latest news
- NEWS Your Restaurant Pricing Strategy Isn’t Working Anymore. Here’s What Is - QSR Magazine — QSR Magazine neutral
- NEWS Stock Prices Are a Mixed Bag for Major QSR Brands - franchisetimes.com — franchisetimes.com neutral
- NEWS Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Projected to Post Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Cyclical Companies: Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Restaurant Brands International — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Are retail-wholesale stocks lagging Restaurant Brands International (QSR) this year? - MSN — MSN neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $70.60. At $74.52 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $70.60 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $77.18 (+3.6%), stop $67.44 (−10.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $77.18 (+3.6% upside). Target $77.18 (+3.6%), stop $67.44 (−10.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $67.44.
Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5.
Restaurant Brands International trades at a P/E of 18.7 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
19 analysts cover QSR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $86.
What does Restaurant Brands International do?We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual...
We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K, over 95% of system-wide restaurants were franchised restaurants.