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SBUXStarbucks CorporationSell5.0·$97.40+2.72%
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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $97.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Starbucks operates 40,990 stores in 89 markets (21,514 company-operated, 19,476 licensed), selling specialty coffee, tea, and food with North America generating 74% of fiscal 2025 net revenues. Revenue comes primarily from company-operated stores (83% of net revenues) and... Read more

$97.40+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#12 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.21%
IncomeYield2.62%(5y avg 2.29%)Payout187.79%at-risk
Stop $92.03Target $97.75(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$106.25+9.1%32 analysts
$97.75our TP
$97.40price
$106.25mean
$81
$137

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $97.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Starbucks Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%)
Target reached (0.3% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)72.4
P/E (Fwd)31.5
Mkt Cap$108.1B
EV/EBITDA24.2
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta0.98
Dividend2.62%
Rating analysts47

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$75-23.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America74%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial performance is heavily reliant on our North America operating segment, which accounted for approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal year 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.4
Net Margin
1.9
Operating Margin
3.4
Current Ratio
3.7
Roa
4.9
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -87% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
5.5

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 262.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $93.64Resistance $108.25

Price Targets

$92
$98
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBUX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $97.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $92.03. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SBUX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $97.75 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $92.03. Stop-loss: $92.03.

What are the risks of investing in SBUX?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%); Target reached (0.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is SBUX overvalued or undervalued?

Starbucks Corporation trades at a P/E of 72.4 (forward 31.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SBUX?

47 analysts cover SBUX with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $106.

What does Starbucks Corporation do?Starbucks operates 40,990 stores in 89 markets (21,514 company-operated, 19,476 licensed), selling specialty coffee,...

Starbucks operates 40,990 stores in 89 markets (21,514 company-operated, 19,476 licensed), selling specialty coffee, tea, and food with North America generating 74% of fiscal 2025 net revenues. Revenue comes primarily from company-operated stores (83% of net revenues) and licensed store royalties and product sales (12%), with Channel Development contributing 5% via the Nestle Global Coffee Alliance.

Related stocks: YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · MCD (McDonald's Corporation) · CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.)
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