Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $107.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
Starbucks is a global specialty coffee retailer and licensor operating in 89 markets, with company-operated stores and licensed stores plus Channel Development via a Global Coffee Alliance with Nestle. North America generated approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $107.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.75, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorth America74%10-K Item 1A: 'North America operating segment...accounted for approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal year 2025'
- HIGHCommodityarabica coffee beans10-K Item 1A: 'We purchase, roast, and sell high-quality arabica coffee...Given coffee's central role in our operations and our limited ability to fully hedge against price increases'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $107.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $101.99. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $105.12 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $101.99. Stop-loss: $101.99.
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: arabica coffee beans; Target reached (-10.0% upside).
Starbucks Corporation trades at a P/E of 80.4 (forward 34.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
48 analysts cover SBUX with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $105.
What does Starbucks Corporation do?Starbucks is a global specialty coffee retailer and licensor operating in 89 markets, with company-operated stores and...
Starbucks is a global specialty coffee retailer and licensor operating in 89 markets, with company-operated stores and licensed stores plus Channel Development via a Global Coffee Alliance with Nestle. North America generated approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025, making it the primary source of operating cash flow.