Starbucks has broken to a golden cross technical setup with strong price momentum at 7.4 out of 10 and rising volume accumulation, but business quality is below the minimum threshold at 3.2 out of 10, the stock has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters by an average of -35%, and geographic concentration in North America at 74% limits the growth story.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Streak Quality Concern→Stable
- Technical Breakout Momentum→Stable
- Geographic Concentration Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 14, 2025
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Wait for pullback to $99.51. Price sits above the model's entry target of $99.51; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Starbucks operates 40,990 coffeehouses in 89 markets — 21,514 company-operated (52%) and 19,476 licensed (48%) — with North America generating 74% of total net revenues and company-operated stores generating 83% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from... Read more
Wait for pullback to $99.51. Price sits above the model's entry target of $99.51; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05 and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Starbucks Corporation
About Starbucks Corporation
Starbucks operated 40,990 coffeehouses across 89 markets at September 28, 2025, including 10,047 U.S. company-operated stores, 8,009 company-operated stores in China, and 19,476 licensed stores worldwide. North America accounted for approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025, with company-operated stores contributing 83% of total net revenues. The company employed approximately 381,000 people, including about 223,000 in the U.S. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Starbucks announced a restructuring plan involving coffeehouse closures — 627 stores were closed in Q4 2025 alone — as part of its 'Back to Starbucks' strategy.
Starbucks earns revenue through three segments: North America (74% of revenues, inclusive of the U.S. and Canada), International (21%, inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Caribbean), and Channel Development (5%, branded packaged goods and ready-to-drink beverages sold outside stores). Under company-operated stores, beverages represented 73% of retail sales mix in fiscal 2025, followed by food at 23%. Licensed stores generate lower gross margins but higher operating margins, with licensees paying royalties and purchasing branded products. Channel Development operates substantially under the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé S.A., which holds global rights to distribute certain Starbucks branded packaged goods; ready-to-drink products operate under collaborative relationships with PepsiCo and Nestlé. The Starbucks Rewards loyalty program and Starbucks Card are central to driving repeat visits and customer retention across North America, China, and Japan.
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Starbucks faces structurally elevated dependence on arabica coffee, which trades at a premium above the 'C' commodity price and is subject to weather volatility, disease, crop disease, and speculative trading — with droughts and frosts in Brazil cited as past price drivers. In May 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that its Board approved further restructuring under the 'Back to Starbucks' strategy, targeting $2 billion in cost savings, with approximately $400 million in restructuring charges expected (roughly $280 million non-cash). International licensed operations are concentrated among a few large regional licensees, and the 10-K notes that if Nestlé fails to meet its obligations or support the brand, it could materially impact Channel Development results.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
From Starbucks Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Starbucks Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Is Starbucks (SBUX) Fully Valued On Strong Guidance And Recent Results? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 earnings report preview: what to look for - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Could Starbucks Stock Survive A Sales Slowdown? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS PepsiCo vs. Starbucks: Which Consumer Goods Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool neutral
- NEWS Billionaire Ken Fisher and Jim Cramer Agree on Starbucks (SBUX). Is It a Buy Now? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorth America74%10-K Item 1A: 'our North America operating segment, which accounted for approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal year 2025'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyNestlé10-K Item 1A: 'Our Channel Development business is heavily reliant on Nestlé, which holds global rights to distribute certain Starbucks branded packaged goods'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 2.05MEDIUMBoard approved further restructuring under 'Back to Starbucks' strategy: ~$400M charges expected (~$280M non-cash), targeting $2B cost savings via streamlining support organization and reducing Starbucks Reserve/Roastery operational complexity. Majority of actions to complete by end of fiscal 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $99.51. Price sits above the model's entry target of $99.51; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $98.94 reached (−4.1%), stop $95.05 (−8.6%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $98.94 reached (−4.1% from $103.20); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $98.94 reached (−4.1%), stop $95.05 (−8.6%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $95.05.
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
Starbucks Corporation trades at a P/E of 59.7 (forward 33.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
45 analysts cover SBUX with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $110.
What does Starbucks Corporation do?Starbucks operates 40,990 coffeehouses in 89 markets — 21,514 company-operated (52%) and 19,476 licensed (48%) — with...
Starbucks operates 40,990 coffeehouses in 89 markets — 21,514 company-operated (52%) and 19,476 licensed (48%) — with North America generating 74% of total net revenues and company-operated stores generating 83% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from coffeehouse sales (beverages 73% of retail mix), licensed store royalties and product sales (12% of revenues), and Channel Development (5% of revenues) primarily through a Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé.