Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.7x
- ▸PEG: 2.56
MCD · Why this verdict
Why McDonald's (MCD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 9.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 5.2 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 69% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 3.4 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $2,930,241 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 9.5 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 8.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 7.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.24
- ▸Above max pain $200
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 266.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.95
Upside
+9.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityCONSERVATIVE — Beta 0.41<0.8, Div 266.0%, Q=7.7
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.95 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 4.0, Growth at 4.1, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.95 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.