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MCDMcDonald's CorporationSell5.5·$277.76-0.74%
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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $277.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft... Read more

$277.76+9.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#8 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.99%
IncomeYield2.66%(5y avg 2.22%)Payout59.85%sustainable
Stop $268.39Target $304.79(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$331.29+19.3%31 analysts
$304.79our TP
$277.76price
$331.29mean
$250
$407

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $277.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-08
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202659d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.7%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.1
P/E (Fwd)19.7
Mkt Cap$198.8B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn31.6%
ROE
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta0.41
Dividend2.66%
Rating analysts40

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.24bearish
IV33%normal
Max Pain$200-28.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    McDONALD'S CORPORATION | | | | | (Registrant) | | | | | | | | Date: | April 2, 2026 | | By: | /s/ Jeffrey J. Pochowicz | | | | | Jeffrey J. Pochowicz Vice President - Associat [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Conservative
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $270.14Resistance $283.40

Price Targets

$268
$305
A.Upside+9.7%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $277.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Prior stop was $268.39. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $304.79 (+9.7% upside). Prior stop was $268.39. Stop-loss: $268.39.

What are the risks of investing in MCD?

Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?

McDonald's Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.1 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCD?

40 analysts cover MCD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $331.

What does McDonald's Corporation do?McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and...

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Related stocks: YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.) · SBUX (Starbucks Corporation) · DRI (Darden Restaurants, Inc.)
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