Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10.
Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 3,938 U.S. and 104 international restaurants serving burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads with fresh ingredients. Revenue comes entirely from company-owned restaurant sales; digital sales were 36.7% of food/beverage revenue in 2025 with... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $31.46. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $40.16 (+21.6% upside). Prior stop was $31.46. Stop-loss: $31.46.
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.2 (forward 25.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
44 analysts cover CMG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $44.
What does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. do?Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 3,938 U.S. and 104 international restaurants serving burritos, bowls, tacos,...
Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 3,938 U.S. and 104 international restaurants serving burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads with fresh ingredients. Revenue comes entirely from company-owned restaurant sales; digital sales were 36.7% of food/beverage revenue in 2025 with 130,301 employees worldwide.