Skip to main content
CAPLCrossAmerica Partners LPSell4.9·$22.66+0.40%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CAPL sits just below the engine's quality floor despite strong cash conversion and a technical breakout, with a flagged yield-trap warning the central risk to the distribution thesis.

Thesis pillars

  • Near Quality FloorStable
  • Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Yield Trap WarningStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.66: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

CrossAmerica Partners is a Delaware limited partnership engaged in the wholesale distribution of motor fuel and ownership and leasing of real estate used in retail motor fuel distribution, operating through retail and wholesale segments across approximately 1,600 sites in 34... Read more

$22.66-1.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#17 of 18 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield11.61%
IncomeYield9.33%(5y avg 9.94%)Payout141.89%at-risk
Stop $21.66Target $22.39(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.66: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CrossAmerica Partners LP

About CrossAmerica Partners LP

CrossAmerica Partners distributed 1,231 million gallons of motor fuel in 2025 across roughly 1,600 sites in 34 states, generating $1,568 million in wholesale segment revenue and $2,095 million in retail segment revenue. The partnership operates through retail and wholesale segments, owns or leases approximately 1,000 of those sites, and is controlled by the Topper Group, which holds a 38.5% limited partner interest and appoints the entire board.

CrossAmerica earns wholesale margin distributing branded motor fuel, about 95% of 2025 volume, under the Exxon, Mobil, BP, Shell, Marathon, Valero and Phillips 66 brands to independent dealers and lessee dealers, while its retail segment sells fuel and convenience merchandise at 352 company-operated sites and collects rent from commission agents. Motor fuel revenue made up 87% of total revenue in 2025 but only 55% of gross profit, since fuel margins run thinner than the partnership's real estate and merchandise lines; food and merchandise sales reached $407 million and rental income totaled $62.5 million across 623 sites. The partnership purchased approximately 79% of its 2025 motor fuel from four suppliers under long-term supply agreements averaging 5.6 years, and depends on a single principal supplier for its merchandise.

Show full overview

CrossAmerica's dependence on four suppliers for 79% of its motor fuel is a distinct risk from ordinary commodity price swings: the 10-K states that negative developments at any of its branded suppliers, or a supplier's decision to distribute directly to CrossAmerica's own wholesale customers, could each pressure revenue independent of crude-oil price movements. Because wholesale motor fuel costs move directly with crude oil, which the filing ties to factors including the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts and Venezuela-related developments, and because credit-card fees are charged as a percentage of the transaction amount rather than a fixed fee, a period of elevated fuel prices can raise costs without proportionally raising gross profit.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

From CrossAmerica Partners LP's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: four suppliers (79.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: one principal supplier
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.2
P/E (Fwd)26.4
Mkt Cap$858M
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn1.8%
ROE
Rev Growth-2.0%
Beta0.27
Dividend9.33%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierfour suppliers79%
    10-K Item 1: 'For 2025, we purchased approximately 79% of our motor fuel from four suppliers.'
  • HIGHSupplierone principal supplier
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on four principal suppliers for the majority of our motor fuel and one principal supplier for our merchandise.'
  • HIGHCommoditymotor fuel87%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For 2025, motor fuel revenues accounted for 87% of our total revenues and motor fuel gross profit accounted for 55% of total gross profit.'
  • HIGHProductbranded motor fuel95%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 95% of the motor fuel we distributed during 2025 was branded'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Declining revenue: -2%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.9
Operating Margin
1.0
Current Ratio
3.0
Roa
3.6
Moat
3.8
Piotroski F
5.6
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 167% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
4.4
Value Rank
5.8
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.30Resistance $22.85

Price Targets

$22
$22
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAPL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.66: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $21.66. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CAPL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.39 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $21.66. Stop-loss: $21.66.

What are the risks of investing in CAPL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: four suppliers (79.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: one principal supplier; Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is CAPL overvalued or undervalued?

CrossAmerica Partners LP trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 26.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CAPL?

6 analysts cover CAPL with a consensus score of 2.2/5.

What does CrossAmerica Partners LP do?CrossAmerica Partners is a Delaware limited partnership engaged in the wholesale distribution of motor fuel and...

CrossAmerica Partners is a Delaware limited partnership engaged in the wholesale distribution of motor fuel and ownership and leasing of real estate used in retail motor fuel distribution, operating through retail and wholesale segments across approximately 1,600 sites in 34 states. The company distributed 1,231 million gallons of motor fuel in 2025 under Exxon, Mobil, BP, Marathon, Shell, Valero and Phillips 66 brands, generating $1,568 million in wholesale segment revenue and $2,095 million in retail segment revenue. The partnership is controlled by the Topper Group, which also holds a 38.5%

Related stocks: UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne) · CSAN (Cosan S.A.) · SGU (Star Group L.P.) · DKL (Delek Logistics Partners, L.P.) · PARR (Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm)
Home Stocks CAPL

Latest news

No recent news