Skip to main content
CSANCosan S.A.Sell6.4·$2.67+0.38%
Open full analysis

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $2.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments. The company's Raízen segment engages in the production, marketing, origination, and trading of sugar, as well as ethanol; production and marketing of... Read more

$2.67+33.0% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#3 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield19.43%
Stop $2.48Target $3.55(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$4.18+56.6%3 analysts
$3.55our TP
$2.67price
$4.18mean
$5

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $2.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 16, MACD bearish. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 14, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 33%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA0.7
Profit Mgn-23.9%
ROE-29.9%
Rev Growth26.5%
Beta0.45
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
2.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.7
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 16, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5INSIDER 0.87%=HEAVYDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
16 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.52Resistance $3.60

Price Targets

$2
$4
A.Upside+33.0%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 0.87%=heavy

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-14 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSAN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $2.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 16, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $2.48. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CSAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $3.55 (+33.0% upside). Prior stop was $2.48. Stop-loss: $2.48.

What are the risks of investing in CSAN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is CSAN overvalued or undervalued?

Cosan S.A. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSAN?

15 analysts cover CSAN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $4.

What does Cosan S.A. do?Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar...

Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments. The company's Raízen segment engages in the production, marketing, origination, and trading of sugar, as well as ethanol; production and marketing of bioenergy, and solar energy and biogas; trading and resale of electricity; and trading and marketing of fossil, renewable fuels, and lubricants under the Shell brand. Its Compass segment distributes piped natural gas to industrial, residential, commercial, automotive, and cogeneration customers; and marketing of natural gas. The company's Moove segment produces, formulates, and distributes lubricants, base oils, and specialties under the Mobil brand and various proprietary brands for industrial, commercial, and passenger vehicles. Its Rumo segment provides logistics services for rail transportation, storage, and port loading of commodities, including grains and sugar; locomotive and railcar leasing; and rail equipment and container operations. The company's Radar segment manages agricultural property. The company operates in Brazil, England, France, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay, Paraguay, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Oceania, the United States, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Cosan S.A. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Related stocks: UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne) · SUN (Sunoco LP) · DKL (Delek Logistics Partners, L.P.) · PARR (Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm) · IEP (Icahn Enterprises L.P. - Deposi)
Home Stocks CSAN

Latest news

Latest News

AD HOC NEWS34d agoEarnings
TipRanks32d ago
MarketBeat40d agoEarnings
Newser.com38d ago
Marketscreener.com42d ago
AD HOC NEWS38d ago
TipRanks38d ago
Benzinga20d ago
Benzinga20d ago
Benzinga32d agoEarnings
Benzinga32d agoEarnings