Star Group L.P. shows an attractive headline valuation (0.46 PEG, best-in-class peer margins) and a bullish technical breakout, but the engine flags it as a potential cyclical trap given the wide forward-vs-trailing P/E gap, three consecutive earnings misses, an expected ~66% earnings decline at a cyclical peak, and a recent news-driven downgrade to a more cautious stance.
Thesis pillars
- Cyclical Trap Valuation Warning→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses Cyclical Peak→Stable
- Earnings Quality Red Flag→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Dec 9, 2025
Star Group L.P. (SGU) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $13.07: Earnings expected to decline ~61% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (3.4% away).
Star Group, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, provides home heating oil and propane products and services to residential and commercial customers in the United States. It offers gasoline and diesel fuel; and installs, maintains, and repairs heating and air conditioning... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $13.07: Earnings expected to decline ~61% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (3.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Star Group L.P.
Latest news
- NEWS Star Group Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue Rose While the Net Loss Widened - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
- NEWS Star Group, L.P. Reports Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Results - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS Star Group, L.P. Reports Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Results - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Star Group (NYSE:SGU) Share Price Crosses Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average - Should You Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS SGU|Star Group LP|Price:12.799|Chg%:+0.239 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $13.07: Earnings expected to decline ~61% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (3.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $12.69. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Default target: $15.03 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $12.69. Stop-loss: $12.69.
Earnings expected to decline ~61% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (3.4% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).
Star Group L.P. trades at a P/E of 5.8 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
5 analysts cover SGU with a consensus score of 4.0/5.
What does Star Group L.P. do?Star Group, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, provides home heating oil and propane products and services to...
Star Group, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, provides home heating oil and propane products and services to residential and commercial customers in the United States. It offers gasoline and diesel fuel; and installs, maintains, and repairs heating and air conditioning equipment and ancillary services. As of September 30, 2025, the company served approximately 406,400 full-service residential and commercial home heating oil and propane customers and 63,200 customers on a delivery only basis. It sells gasoline and diesel fuel to approximately 27,700 customers. The company was formerly known as Star Gas Partners, L.P. and changed its name to Star Group, L.P. in October 2017. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Stamford, Connecticut.