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Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz,... Read more

$5.36+15.0% upside
Score 5.6/10Target $6.22Reward/Risk 0.9:1

TrendMatrix rates Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) as Sell with moderate confidence. The stock trades at $5.36 with +15.0% upside to the $6.22 price target. Overall score: 5.6/10 across 10 analysis dimensions. Reward/risk ratio: 0.9:1.

Passes 3/4 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val7.5Qual3.9Grw4.1Mom8.2Sent5.0Ins5.0Peer6.8Tech3.8Risk7.45.6OVERALL

Investment Thesis

- V8: Target reached (-17.2% upside)
- Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Fundamentals

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA3.5
Profit Mgn1.7%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth7.2%
Beta0.59
Dividend6.08%
Analysts21
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UGP stock a buy right now?

TrendMatrix rates Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) as Sell with moderate confidence. Score 5.6/10.

What is the UGP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.22 (+15.0% upside). Reward/risk ratio: 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $4.50.

What are the risks of investing in UGP?

V8: Target reached (-17.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is UGP overvalued or undervalued?

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UGP?

21 analysts cover UGP with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne do?Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure...

Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments. The company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and additive fuels under the Ipimax brand to carriers, resellers, and retailers; operates service stations under the Ipiranga brand and convenience stores under the AmPm brand; and produces and sells lubricants under the ICONIC brand. It also engages in the distribution of bulk and bottled liquefied petroleum gas for the residential, condominium, trade, services, industrial, and agribusiness sectors; operation of a natural gas pipeline network; and provision of renewable electricity for businesses and households, as well as compressed natural gas and biomethane for corporate clients. In addition, the company operates liquid bulk storage terminals in logistics centers; waterway and multimodal infrastructure; and port operations. Further, the company offers logistics solutions for handling grains, ores, and fertilizers; automotive services through Jet Oil units; and loyalty programs under the Km de Vantagens (KMV) brand. It also exports its products and services. Ultrapar Participações S.A. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Related stocks: APC (ARKO Petroleum Corp.) · DINO (HF Sinclair Corporation) · IEP (Icahn Enterprises L.P. - Deposi) · DKL (Delek Logistics Partners, L.P.) · PARR (Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm)
65 NEUTRAL
20d50d200dGOLDEN CROSSSupp $4.64Res $5.41

Price Targets

$5
$6
Upside+15.0%
Reward/Risk0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNONE
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeNEUTRAL

Risk Alerts

! V8: Target reached (-17.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
BREAKOUTSuitability: Moderate
Momentum 8.2>=5.0
Insider activity: OK
No SEC red flags
Risk/Reward -1.2=NEGATIVE