Par Pacific is a cheaply valued, high-ROE refiner with 57% revenue growth, but weak cash conversion, inconsistent earnings surprises, insider selling and only 7.3% upside to the analyst target limit the case for adding.
Thesis pillars
- Rapid Revenue Growth→Stable
- Cheap Valuation High Roe↑Improving
- Weak Cash Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 3/7 gates (no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm
Latest news
- NEWS Par Petroleum (PARR) Is Up 1.50% in One Week: What You Should Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Par Pacific Holdings Jumps 5.3% Amid Sector-Wide Rally - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet positive
- NEWS Par Pacific Holdings stock hits all-time high at 82.37 USD - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS OMERS ADMINISTRATION Corp Acquires 15,400 Shares of Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. $PARR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Renaissance Technologies LLC Cuts Stock Position in Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. $PARR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $82.65 (+12.0%), stop $70.66 (−4.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $82.65 (+12.0% upside). Analyst target $82.65 (+12.0%), stop $70.66 (−4.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $70.66.
Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm trades at a P/E of 4.3 (forward 4.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover PARR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $95.
What does Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm do?Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington,...
Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76 brands in Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho, and a multi-modal logistics network in the Pacific, Northwest, and Rocky Mountain regions.