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PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. CommSell5.5·$57.15+2.68%
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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $57.15 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Par Pacific Holdings operates four refineries (219 Mbpd combined capacity) in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, plus retail fuel outlets and a multi-modal logistics network serving the western US and Hawaii. The Hawaii refinery (94 Mbpd) serves Hawaii's isolated island... Read more

$57.15+14.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#7 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.25%
Stop $53.17Target $65.25(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$75.00+31.2%7 analysts
$65.25our TP
$57.15price
$75.00mean
$80

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $57.15 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 58%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.3
P/E (Fwd)5.6
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA5.4
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE33.3%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta0.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV77%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.6
Volume
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Obv
6.2
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $54.81Resistance $65.99

Price Targets

$53
$65
A.Upside+14.2%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PARR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $57.15 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $53.17. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PARR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $65.25 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $53.17. Stop-loss: $53.17.

What are the risks of investing in PARR?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is PARR overvalued or undervalued?

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PARR?

13 analysts cover PARR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $75.

What does Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm do?Par Pacific Holdings operates four refineries (219 Mbpd combined capacity) in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana,...

Par Pacific Holdings operates four refineries (219 Mbpd combined capacity) in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, plus retail fuel outlets and a multi-modal logistics network serving the western US and Hawaii. The Hawaii refinery (94 Mbpd) serves Hawaii's isolated island market; continental refineries serve the Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountain regions.

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