Value
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.8x
- ▸Attractively valued
CAPL · Why this verdict
Why CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CrossAmerica Partners combines strong cash conversion (147% FCF/NI), 26% growth and a four-quarter beat streak with quality below the 4.0 minimum, heavy supplier concentration and an unsafe-looking yield.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The high yield looks unsafe, with a dividend safety component of 3.0/10 and a yield-trap flag, and quality is 3.8/10. Catalyst breakdown | Distribution coverage improves so dividend safety rises above 5/10 over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMaster limited partnerships often maintain distributions through thin coverage for years, so the flag may overstate near-term cut risk. | ||
Free cash flow is 147% of net income, so cash generation exceeds reported profit. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin of only 0.8/10 in score means a thin net income base that can inflate the conversion ratio. | ||
The partnership beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, and revenue grew 26% YoY. Catalyst breakdown | EPS surprise stays positive in the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA very large average surprise of 163% reflects tiny estimate bases in a low-margin fuel distributor, and does not predict future beats. | ||
Supply is concentrated, with four suppliers accounting for 79.0% and one principal supplier. Bear case | Supply terms stay stable and margins hold through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFuel is a commodity with many alternate wholesale sources, so supplier dependence may be replaceable at similar cost. | ||
The high yield looks unsafe, with a dividend safety component of 3.0/10 and a yield-trap flag, and quality is 3.8/10.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Distribution coverage improves so dividend safety rises above 5/10 over 12 months.
CounterMaster limited partnerships often maintain distributions through thin coverage for years, so the flag may overstate near-term cut risk.
Free cash flow is 147% of net income, so cash generation exceeds reported profit.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterNet margin of only 0.8/10 in score means a thin net income base that can inflate the conversion ratio.
The partnership beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, and revenue grew 26% YoY.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the next 4 quarters.
CounterA very large average surprise of 163% reflects tiny estimate bases in a low-margin fuel distributor, and does not predict future beats.
Supply is concentrated, with four suppliers accounting for 79.0% and one principal supplier.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Supply terms stay stable and margins hold through the next 12 months.
CounterFuel is a commodity with many alternate wholesale sources, so supplier dependence may be replaceable at similar cost.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.9 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 147% FCF/NI
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 9.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 2.7 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 7.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 20.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 6d<=7d outcome against Momentum at 7.4 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Peer rank at 3.6, and Quality at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 147%.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next quarterly report.
- P3Supplier Concentration Risk
Trip ifThe four largest suppliers share falls below 60% from the current 79.0%.
- P4Unsafe High Yield
Trip ifDividend safety score rises above 6.0 from the current 3.0.