Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM-A) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $140.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%); Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage issuers (90.6%).
Farmer Mac (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) is a federally-chartered GSE that operates the only secondary market for U.S. agricultural mortgage loans, USDA-guaranteed loans, and rural infrastructure obligations across seven business segments. Revenue comes from net... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $140.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%); Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage issuers (90.6%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Federal Agricultural Mortgage C
About Federal Agricultural Mortgage C
Seven reportable segments spanning Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy form the operational core of Farmer Mac — the sole federally-chartered secondary market for U.S. agricultural mortgage loans, infrastructure loans, and USDA Securities — which held $8.4 billion in AgVantage securities outstanding and $5.4 billion in contingent LTSPC and guarantee liabilities at December 31, 2025. The Farm Credit Administration regulates Farmer Mac under 12 C.F.R. §§ 652.1-652.45.
Farmer Mac earns net interest income on loans and securities held on balance sheet and collects guarantee and commitment fees on LTSPCs and securitization transactions, with charter-capped guarantee fee rates of no more than 50 basis points per year. Funding relies on public capital-market debt issuance, where the company competes with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Federal Home Loan Banks, and FCS institutions for investor capital. Counterparty concentration is a defining feature of both business lines: in 2025, ten institutions generated approximately 55% of loan purchase volume in the Agricultural Finance segment, while two institutions represented nearly all of the Infrastructure Finance business volume. AgVantage securities — general obligations of institutional counterparties collateralized by pools of Eligible Loans — amplify this pattern further, with approximately 90.6% of the $8.4 billion outstanding balance issued by three institutions at December 31, 2025.
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Farmer Mac's counterparty concentration is measurable and explicitly flagged in the 10-K: $7.6 billion of the $8.4 billion in AgVantage securities outstanding had been issued by three counterparties at December 31, 2025, and taking possession of collateral upon a counterparty default could increase current expected credit losses and raise capital requirements. In June 2026, Farmer Mac disclosed via Form 8-K the retirement of President and CEO Bradford T. Nordholm, adding a management transition dimension alongside the counterparty concentration profile.
See also: Financial Services · Credit Services
From Federal Agricultural Mortgage C's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Federal Agricultural Mortgage C
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Jun 8, 2026 HIGH Item 5.02: Bradford T. Nordholm, President and CEO of Farmer Mac, announced retirement (advised board September 25, 2025); event date June 3, 2026. Filing body truncated; no successor confirmed in available text.
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-10 Agricultural Finance institutions55%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, ten institutions generated approximately 55% of loan purchase volume in the Agricultural Finance line of business'
- HIGHcounterpartytop-3 AgVantage issuers91%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 90.6% of the $8.4 billion outstanding principal amount of AgVantage securities...were issued by three institutions'
- HIGHCustomertwo Infrastructure Finance institutions10-K Item 1A: 'transactions with two institutions represented nearly all of the business volume under our Infrastructure Finance line of business'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-08Item 5.02HIGHBradford T. Nordholm, President and CEO of Farmer Mac, announced retirement (advised board September 25, 2025); event date June 3, 2026. Filing body truncated; no successor confirmed in available text.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWFarmer Mac appointed Mandy M. Talan, Managing Director–Corporate Controller, as principal accounting officer effective April 21, 2026. Successor to retiring Gregory Ramsey; no reason cited for vacancy.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-26Item 5.02MEDIUMGregory N. Ramsey, VP–Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer), retired effective April 8, 2026. No disagreement cited. Successor Mandy Talan appointed April 21, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOWFarmer Mac Compensation Committee approved base salary increases for named officers retroactively. Routine 5.02(e) compensation arrangement; no officer departures or appointments.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $140.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%); Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage issuers (90.6%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $135.24. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $136.21 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $135.24. Stop-loss: $135.24.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%); Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage issuers (90.6%); Leverage penalty (D/E 20.1): -1.5.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage C trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
6 analysts cover AGM-A with a consensus score of 4.0/5.
What does Federal Agricultural Mortgage C do?Farmer Mac (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) is a federally-chartered GSE that operates the only secondary...
Farmer Mac (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) is a federally-chartered GSE that operates the only secondary market for U.S. agricultural mortgage loans, USDA-guaranteed loans, and rural infrastructure obligations across seven business segments. Revenue comes from net interest income and guarantee/commitment fees; funding relies on public debt-market issuance, regulated by the Farm Credit Administration.