Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM-A) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Credit Services
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $140.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%).
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a federally-chartered GSE providing a secondary market for agricultural mortgage loans, USDA Securities, and rural infrastructure loans, earning net interest income and guarantee/commitment fees. As of Dec 31, 2025, $8.4B... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $140.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Federal Agricultural Mortgage C
About Federal Agricultural Mortgage C
Seven reportable segments spanning Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy form the operational core of Farmer Mac — the sole federally-chartered secondary market for U.S. agricultural mortgage loans, infrastructure loans, and USDA Securities — which held $8.4 billion in AgVantage securities outstanding and $5.4 billion in contingent LTSPC and guarantee liabilities at December 31, 2025. The Farm Credit Administration regulates Farmer Mac under 12 C.F.R. §§ 652.1-652.45.
Farmer Mac earns net interest income on loans and securities held on balance sheet and collects guarantee and commitment fees on LTSPCs and securitization transactions, with charter-capped guarantee fee rates of no more than 50 basis points per year. Funding relies on public capital-market debt issuance, where the company competes with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Federal Home Loan Banks, and FCS institutions for investor capital. Counterparty concentration is a defining feature of both business lines: in 2025, ten institutions generated approximately 55% of loan purchase volume in the Agricultural Finance segment, while two institutions represented nearly all of the Infrastructure Finance business volume. AgVantage securities — general obligations of institutional counterparties collateralized by pools of Eligible Loans — amplify this pattern further, with approximately 90.6% of the $8.4 billion outstanding balance issued by three institutions at December 31, 2025.
Show full overview
Farmer Mac's counterparty concentration is measurable and explicitly flagged in the 10-K: $7.6 billion of the $8.4 billion in AgVantage securities outstanding had been issued by three counterparties at December 31, 2025, and taking possession of collateral upon a counterparty default could increase current expected credit losses and raise capital requirements. In June 2026, Farmer Mac disclosed via Form 8-K the retirement of President and CEO Bradford T. Nordholm, adding a management transition dimension alongside the counterparty concentration profile.
See also: Financial Services · Credit Services
From Federal Agricultural Mortgage C's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-10Recent Developments — Federal Agricultural Mortgage C
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Jun 8, 2026 HIGH Item 5.02: Bradford T. Nordholm, President and CEO of Farmer Mac, announced retirement (advised board September 25, 2025); event date June 3, 2026. Filing body truncated; no successor confirmed in available text.
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartytop-3 AgVantage counterparties91%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 90.6% of the $8.4 billion outstanding principal amount of AgVantage securities... were issued by three institutions'
- HIGHCustomertop-10 Agricultural Finance institutions55%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, ten institutions generated approximately 55% of loan purchase volume in the Agricultural Finance line of business'
- HIGHCustomertwo Infrastructure Finance institutions10-K Item 1A: 'transactions with two institutions represented nearly all of the business volume under our Infrastructure Finance line of business'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWMandy M. Talan (Corporate Controller) appointed principal accounting officer effective April 21, 2026, succeeding Gregory Ramsey who retired April 8, 2026. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOWGregory N. Ramsey, VP-Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer), announced retirement effective April 8, 2026. No disagreement cited; successor Mandy Talan named.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOWHuman Capital and Compensation Committee approved base salary increases for named executive officers on March 5, 2026, effective retroactively to January 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departures.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $140.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $137.79 (-1.8%), stop $138.03 (−1.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $137.79 (-1.8% upside). Target $137.79 (-1.8%), stop $138.03 (−1.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $138.03.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 20.1): -1.5.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage C trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
6 analysts cover AGM-A with a consensus score of 4.0/5.
What does Federal Agricultural Mortgage C do?Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a federally-chartered GSE providing a secondary market for...
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a federally-chartered GSE providing a secondary market for agricultural mortgage loans, USDA Securities, and rural infrastructure loans, earning net interest income and guarantee/commitment fees. As of Dec 31, 2025, $8.4B in AgVantage securities were outstanding (90.6% from three institutions) and $5.4B in contingent LTSPC/guarantee liabilities.