Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM-A) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the AGM-A stock price target?

Take-profit $132.30 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $131.96.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $133.72: Concentration risk — Counterparty: three AgVantage institutions (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%).

Farmer Mac is a federally chartered GSE providing a secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans, purchasing and guaranteeing eligible loans and AgVantage securities for lenders in rural America. Revenue comes from net interest income and guarantee/commitment... Read more

$133.72-1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#21 of 28 Credit Services

Stop $131.96Target $132.30(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Margin of safety: 46%

Risks

Concentration risk — Counterparty: three AgVantage institutions (90.6%)

Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%)

Leverage penalty (D/E 19.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.1

P/E (Fwd)—

Mkt Cap$1.5B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn55.7%

ROE12.9%

Rev Growth-5.8%

Beta0.97

Dividend4.54%

Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHcounterpartythree AgVantage institutions91%
10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 90.6% of the $8.4 billion outstanding principal amount of AgVantage securities...were issued by three institutions.'
HIGHCustomertop-10 Agricultural Finance institutions55%
10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, ten institutions generated approximately 55% of loan purchase volume in the Agricultural Finance line of business.'
HIGHCustomertwo Infrastructure Finance institutions
10-K Item 1A: 'transactions with two institutions represented nearly all of the business volume under our Infrastructure Finance line of business.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
Farmer Mac appointed Mandy M. Talan (Managing Director, Corporate Controller) as principal accounting officer effective April 21, 2026. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →
2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
Gregory N. Ramsey (VP, Chief Accounting Officer) notified Farmer Mac of retirement effective April 8, 2026. Not the result of any disagreement with Company.
SEC filing →
2026-03-11Item 5.02LOW
Human Capital and Compensation Committee approved base salary increases for named officers effective retroactively to January 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.915%1.33

Quality6.215%0.93

Growth0.615%0.09

Momentum6.810%0.68

Sentiment5.010%0.50

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.210%0.42

Technical Setup4.25%0.21

Risk Profile7.45%0.37

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.41

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -5.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

1.1

Declining revenue: -6%

GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

81 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $120.00Resistance $135.00

Price Targets

$132

A.Upside-1.1%

A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts6

Consensus4.0/5

Avg Target—

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for AGM-A.

The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AGM-A stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $133.72: Concentration risk — Counterparty: three AgVantage institutions (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Prior stop was $131.96. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the AGM-A stock price target?

Take-profit target: $132.30 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $131.96. Stop-loss: $131.96.

What are the risks of investing in AGM-A?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: three AgVantage institutions (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 19.3): -1.5.

Is AGM-A overvalued or undervalued?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage C trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGM-A?

6 analysts cover AGM-A with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does Federal Agricultural Mortgage C do?Farmer Mac is a federally chartered GSE providing a secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans,...