Value
9.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.47
- ▸Attractively valued
AGM-A · Why this verdict
Why Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM-A) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Federal Agricultural Mortgage combines 25% YoY growth, 56% margins and a PEG of 0.51 with a safe 4.5% dividend, but earnings rest on a few counterparties (top-3 issuers at 90.6%), leverage is very high (D/E 19.9), and only 2.0% of upside remains to resistance.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 56%, best-in-class among peers, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 50% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets is only 0.4/10 and return on equity 4.5/10, so the high margin does not convert to strong returns on its large balance sheet. | ||
Growth is strong at 25% YoY, with revenue growth scoring 8.7/10 and earnings growth 6.2/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67, and no earnings or revenue history is available in the data to check how durable the growth is. | ||
The shares are attractively valued, with a PEG of 0.51 and a price-to-earnings score of 9.5/10. Valuation breakdown | PEG stays below 1.0 as earnings growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterValuation confidence is only 0.5, and the stock has already rallied into resistance, leaving only 2.0% upside. | ||
The dividend yields 4.5% and carries a dividend safety score of 9.0/10. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety stays above 7/10 and the payout is maintained or raised. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage (D/E 19.9) means a funding or credit shock could pressure the payout. | ||
Earnings are concentrated in the top-3 AgVantage issuers (90.6%) and top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%), with leverage at D/E 19.9, yet results have held up. Bear case | Concentration with the top-3 issuers stays at or below 91% with no credit events. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThree high-severity concentration risks mean the failure of one counterparty would hit most of the book, and the leverage penalty is -1.5. | ||
Margins are strong at 56%, best-in-class among peers, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 50% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months.
CounterReturn on assets is only 0.4/10 and return on equity 4.5/10, so the high margin does not convert to strong returns on its large balance sheet.
Growth is strong at 25% YoY, with revenue growth scoring 8.7/10 and earnings growth 6.2/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67, and no earnings or revenue history is available in the data to check how durable the growth is.
The shares are attractively valued, with a PEG of 0.51 and a price-to-earnings score of 9.5/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG stays below 1.0 as earnings growth continues.
CounterValuation confidence is only 0.5, and the stock has already rallied into resistance, leaving only 2.0% upside.
The dividend yields 4.5% and carries a dividend safety score of 9.0/10.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety stays above 7/10 and the payout is maintained or raised.
CounterHigh leverage (D/E 19.9) means a funding or credit shock could pressure the payout.
Earnings are concentrated in the top-3 AgVantage issuers (90.6%) and top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%), with leverage at D/E 19.9, yet results have held up.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Concentration with the top-3 issuers stays at or below 91% with no credit events.
CounterThree high-severity concentration risks mean the failure of one counterparty would hit most of the book, and the leverage penalty is -1.5.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 56%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.7 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 100)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 4.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 9.5; weakest: Peer rank at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Technical at 7.5, and Growth at 7.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.6, Insider at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Margins Strong Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 40% from the current 56%.
- P2Strong Yoy Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 25%.
- P3Attractive Peg Valuation
Trip ifPEG rises above 1.5 from the current 0.51.
- P4Safe Dividend Income
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 6/10 from the current 9.0.
- P5Counterparty Concentration Manageable
Trip ifTop-3 AgVantage issuer concentration exceeds 95% from the current 90.6%.